Author: ФЕДЮЛИН РОМАН СЕРГЕЕВИЧ / FEDYUKIN ROMAN SERGEEVICH
PREFACE
The future has always been a mystery to man and prompted him to look for various ways to predict it. Whole cults were based on this, and nowadays there is hardly less speculation and speculation about what awaits us after some time. In this essay, I want to speculate on how the world will get out of the current situation, and what this path can lead to. I do not consider this work to be propaganda or aimed at protecting any one side. I am sure that the vision given here has some basis, but there is also a share of fiction in it. Have fun reading!
WORLD 2100
The beginning of the XXI century, despite its apparent serenity, has become a time of severe trials for the entire international system as a whole and individual States in particular. Acute crises first imperceptibly, and then clearly overwhelmed humanity. Political leaders have dubbed the period 2000-2030 the Time of the Great Turbulence. All turning points in history happen unexpectedly for a simple man in the street, and this time was no exception. Humanity has become incomparably more educated since the Middle Ages, but it has not become more intelligent.
In the chain of events, 2022 was a turning point. Russia, experiencing a clear threat to its security, has exhausted the main ways of peaceful settlement of the conflict with the Western states led by the United States and on February 24, 2022, launched an offensive operation on the territory of Ukraine in order to ensure its strategic security. Of course, there were other crises before that, and since 2014 everything has only been going to this result, but few people seriously considered the military scenario, and no one seriously talked about the beginning of its implementation at the end of winter 2022.
The basic idea of Russia was not immediately understood. Leading, at first glance, a chaotic offensive, the Russian armed forces did not achieve impressive results during the first year of the war. But as it became clear later, completely different goals were set. The protracted conflict was only the first link in the chain of events of the dismantling of the existing international system and the rise of China and Russia. The global crisis of the world economic system has made it clear that the world needs a new model of development.
Upon detailed analysis, it turned out that the prolonged conflict in Ukraine causes irreparable damage to the countries of the European Union and NATO. Ensuring the combat capability of the armed forces of Ukraine required from its allies increasingly decisive measures of economic and military support. However, such steps were inexcusable for States that had just survived the COVID-19 pandemic and were dependent on the supply of resources. The crisis economy simply could not cope with the demands that fell on it. And the traditional way of life of developed countries could not allow for the rapid and effective mobilization of the population for political needs, and could their leaders really carry out such a step? Apparently not.
Meanwhile, China continued to remain on the periphery of international observers. The mysterious eastern country has always been difficult to analyze by Western colleagues. But it was no longer so important. By this time, the eastern giant had reached sufficient power to assert its rights. He went to this for a long time, through hunger, the deaths of his citizens, the bloody Second World War, the political struggle, and he reached it. The first signal was the expulsion of the so-called pro-American cell from the ruling circles of the PRC. The natives of the Komsomol cells did not expect such a quick and sharp blow. this decided their fate. In turn, such an action has prepared a platform for resolving once and for all the issue related to the special status of the island of Taiwan. However, Xi Jinping was happy to resolve this issue through the peaceful process of the victory of supporters of a united China in the elections. Such a scenario turned out to be objectively impossible, the United States did not just arm the island and support it for many years, thereby turning it into its unsinkable aircraft carrier. It remained only to turn it into Donbass.
In 2023, the Democratic Party of Taiwan announced a referendum to recognize the island's legal independence from mainland China. Unequivocally, the latter could not tolerate such audacity and announced a military operation to suppress the separatist movement on its island part of the territory. The National Liberation Army of China has been preparing for such a scenario for a long time, and now it has become a reality.
The gloomy forecasts of American analysts have come true. The Ukrainian conflict has not been frozen or defeated by Russia, and with it a new "front" has opened in Taiwan. Joe Biden failed to adequately assess the military and economic forces of his country and had to pay for it. Europe is in a truly difficult situation. Russian energy supplies have shifted to the Asian market at an even faster pace. As a result of the fighting, maritime trade chains were seriously affected, which in turn led to a shortage of high-tech electronics not only in Europe. Protest actions have intensified in major European cities, and the opposition's ratings have accelerated upward.
The stretching of NATO's military resources quickly affected both theaters of operations. Although the Chinese army did not capture Taiwan for several days, a naval blockade of the island was established, as well as shelling of the island's military infrastructure with precision weapons was widespread. The United States actively tried to help the Taiwanese government from Japan and South Korea by supplying military products bypassing the Chinese navy, but this kind of support did not have the same results as in Ukraine, but provided more psychological support. Russia, using the general confusion and the drop in Western aid supplies coupled with a drop in the morale of the Ukrainian army, struck from the territory of Belarus on the right-bank Ukraine in the direction of the Polish border. In total, more than half a million people were involved.
The moment turned out to be favorable for the beginning of political speeches in the countries of Africa and the Middle East with criticism of the international system of relations built on the Western model. A fierce internal political conflict has broken out in the United States. The Republicans mercilessly attacked the Democrats for destroying America's traditional positions in the international system and, in the eyes of the American people, had a full moral right to do so. And now the American economy was beginning to crack at the seams.
Meanwhile, China and Russia developed their military and political successes. After the landing and the seizure of a significant territory by the National Liberation Army of China, the government of Taiwan agreed to surrender, in exchange for the loyal attitude of the Chinese government. In Ukraine, the situation developed in a slightly different way. After being cut off from the Polish border and unable to further hold fortified positions in the South-East of the country, Vladimir Zelensky and the main leaders of the government secretly left Ukraine through the territory of Romania. In the current situation, it was not possible to restore the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, after about a month of resistance, the organized army broke up into several small pockets, which were quickly eliminated.
After the collapse in Asia and Eastern Europe, the United States is finally losing control of the international situation, they will have to make a lot of effort to stabilize their domestic political situation. A multipolar world is being formed, albeit in a rather "raw" form. China's economic superiority over its closest competitors allows it to take a leading position in economic indicators in 2028. And Russia's geopolitical and military victory in the confrontation in Ukraine allows Vladimir Putin to win the presidential election of 2024.
It certainly takes several years to completely suppress the guerrilla war in Ukraine, but the fate of this country has already been decided. According to the results of the referendum held in 2025, the majority of Ukrainians support territorial integration into Russia. Given the situation of recent years and the hostility of European countries, as well as under pressure from the Kremlin, there is no other way out for Belarusians except to join the Russian Federation on the rights of broad autonomy. In the wake of the surge of the patriotic movement, the Russian opposition is finally collapsing, and Western countries no longer have effective leverage to counter such decisions.
The period of sluggish struggle cannot last long, the world needs certainty, in this scenario, an international summit is being held in Istanbul in 2029, the purpose of which is to consolidate the new world order. Although the EU and NATO remain in existence, they have mostly symbolic significance. As a result of the summit's work, the so-called Sanctions Reset occurs - the mutual lifting of sanctions by all states. The new borders of the Russian Federation are recognized, in exchange for recognition from European states, Russia undertakes to restore the supply of energy resources to the European market in the required volume. China, on the other hand, signs a treaty in which it refuses territorial expansion in the future. The United States no longer has the political will to impose international decisions that are beneficial to itself. The crushing defeat of the Democratic Party in the 2024 elections was only the beginning of a revision of the country's domestic political system. Donald Trump has taken a direct course to reduce the international presence of his country, some experts even started talking about a return to the policy of isolationism and the Monroe Doctrine. In any case, a large-scale revision of the entire American domestic and foreign policy has begun. A historic event for Russia was the signing of a peace treaty with Japan at the summit. For Vladimir Putin, in the eyes of the Russian people, the image of the winner has become even more entrenched. It was quite natural to abandon the dollar system. The dollar has maintained its existence as a currency, but now it finds itself in an absolutely equal position with such currencies as the ruble, yuan, euro and some others. After three months of work, the summit ended.
It can be safely put on a par with the most significant events in the history of mankind. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a new model of the world structure has developed. China and Russia emerged from the period of active crises in the strongest position. Economically battered Europe and the United States of America, torn apart by internal disputes, were unable to become important players in the near future and regain lost positions.
China was confidently moving towards the limits of its economic power, and Russia gave priority attention to the countries of Central Asia and the Middle East, but China was certainly the number one partner. Under the influence of unprecedented successes, Putin was elected to a new presidential term. Russia has received the long-awaited freedom of action in the economic field. Although the trade in natural resources continued, significant parts of the profits were invested in the development of scientific potential and high-tech manufacturing industries. The space program received a new impetus to development. With the overall growth of technological development, it has become possible to move this area forward more effectively.
In general, the post-war stage for the whole world, but primarily for Russia, can be described as a time of peaceful progress. But if some countries were recovering from a severe economic knockdown, and China was already close to the limits of its economic growth, then the Russian Federation, due to new developed territories, colossal reserves of resources and, most importantly, the moral uplift of the population, comparable to victory in the war with Napoleon or over Germany, was irresistibly striving for even greater power. Apparently, all the development programs promised in the early 2000s had to be fulfilled and exceeded during these years. Having largely restored economic power, Vladimir Putin left the post of President of the Russian Federation in 2036. By that time, the president's authority was so huge that the receiver he recommended won the election by a huge margin. This man was entrusted with an equally difficult task. With the help of peaceful economic growth, overtake China and lead the country to the position of world leader. Fortunately, the moment was chosen quite well. The Chinese economy, after reaching its peak in the 2050s, according to all calculations, inevitably began to fall down. Even the population was naturally decreasing!
Significant profits from the supply of resources made it possible to create a financial base for the technological growth of knowledge-intensive industries. Cosmonautics was developing at an accelerated pace. In 2047, a manned flight to the Moon took place, and in 2058 the first manned expedition to Mars took place. Gradually, Russia's authority in the world increased even more.
The Chinese worldview is characterized by a sense of cyclicity. China became the first power in the world, but over time this state formation was moving towards its honorable old age. A strong and renewed Russia was eager to take his place. Without wars, progress was peacefully shifting towards the largest country in the world. It was important to avoid the economic trap and not turn into a large international workshop for the production of goods. The right way was the development of science, art, the creation of new meanings. Space became closer, but further movement into it was decided here on Earth. Under the leadership of Russia, the UN has received a new life. Now it was impossible to shut up a small and weak country with a loud shout from across the ocean.
In general, so peacefully, almost harmoniously, in the second half of the XXI century, Russia became, no, not the center of the world, but its core. The year 2100 was marked by the year of the Earth. A kind of farewell to old conflicts and mercantile values. Behind was history, and ahead was the universe.
AFTERWORD
Perhaps the dear reader will agree with something, but not with something. Anyway, thank you for reading. This work will prompt someone to their own arguments about the future of the world, because we see only the present, and that is far from complete, and the absolute majority of people do not have a complete picture of the future. And I will be very glad if my work helps to start shaping it.