Introduction
During every technological revolution, there was an invention that became its main accelerator. For the first revolution, this invention was a steam engine, for the second – an electric motor. The third revolution has already taken place, and its main events were the creation of the computer and the Internet. And today, many are talking about the beginning of industry 4.0, which will be based on the symbiosis of artificial intelligence (hereinafter – AI) and human1, fully automated production and the replacement of all monotonous processes by robots.
However, so far the development of AI is only at the initial stage. It is too early to talk about the complete replacement of a person with a computer, which is indicated by the concept of industry 4.0. So far, there is a major problem hindering the widespread development of AI: it is the high time costs of AI training. Due to the high computational complexity of the algorithms2 on which AI models are built, as well as the huge amount of data in training data sets (databases needed for AI training, such databases must be large enough for the AI to form the correct relationships between input and output data), training can take months,3 and then and years. In addition, training on a single data set may not lead to the desired result, and the AI will have to be retrained, which will take even longer, since there is a possibility that you will have to change the model altogether and learn from zero4.
Therefore, at the current level of development, AI will catch up with humans in many decades. However, recently analysts have started talking about the prospect of creating a quantum computer - a device whose computing power will be many times higher than the parameters of the most powerful predecessors. And what kind of future awaits a quantum computer, how it will help the creators of AI, whether it is worth hoping for or fearing it – to answer these questions is the purpose of this work, as well as to create a sufficiently plausible model for the introduction of quantum computing technology in science, business and everyday life.
The tasks of the work include the following steps:
- To study the principle of operation of a quantum computer and compare it with the principle of operation of a conventional computer.
- To find out the advantages and disadvantages of a quantum computer over a conventional one.
- To understand what problems of modern humanity a quantum computer will help solve.
- To make a forecast of the development and implementation of quantum computers.
- To draw conclusions about how accurate and practically significant this forecast is.
The principle of operation of a quantum processor differs significantly from the principle of operation of a conventional one: if a conventional processor performs operations with bits that can be in one of two states – 0 and 1, then a quantum processor operates with qubits that are in two states simultaneously. Calculations are performed simultaneously on each state and, as a result, occur almost instantly. Qubits are quantum objects that are in superposition – that is, with a certain probability at the moment they can be in either one or another state. Also, all objects must be connected, that is, be in a state of quantum entanglement, so that a change in the state of one object entails a change in the state of others. This ensures the parallelism of calculations – all possible values of a group of qubits are calculated simultaneously.
Thanks to this principle of operation, quantum computing has the most important advantages over computing on a conventional processor:
1) Many orders of magnitude more values are stored in memory at the same time: if the register of an ordinary computer stores N states, then the register of a quantum computer can store 2N states.
2) Tasks that are impossible for ordinary computers are solved on a quantum computer in a matter of secons5.
However, there are several serious drawbacks, which include:
1) Instability of the state of quantum entanglement, which is very difficult to maintain: a state of superconductivity must be achieved, and therefore the temperature must tend to absolute zero. Also, any interactions with the outside world lead to the destruction of this state, for example, a photon flying past or the slightest mechanical wave. In turn, this leads to significant errors.
2) The result of quantum calculations is true only with some probability. Despite the fact that this probability can be approximated to one, the result in the accuracy of the values will still be inferior to the results obtained during conventional computations6.
3) The dimensions of the protective case significantly exceed the computationally useful part of the device itself.
4) Quantum algorithms easily crack ciphers with a public key, which poses a great threat to firms that use these ciphers, and most of these firms.
Taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of quantum computing, as well as the needs of modern society, it is possible to determine the prospects and applications of quantum computers:
• Quantum computing is very well suited for algorithms that distribute probabilities, namely, such algorithms include those that use machine learning, deep learning and AI. They will solve the problem of long computing, accelerating the creation of a "strong" AI7, and, accordingly, accelerating the process of production automation, and, accordingly, the onset of the fourth technological revolution.
• Forecasting, which is especially important for medicine (forecasting and analysis based on biometric and genetic data) and economics (forecasts of fluctuations in securities, inflation and other economic metrics).
• Modeling of resource-intensive experiments that are difficult to implement in reality for one reason or another, and with the help of quantum computing, they can first be carried out on a computer model.
• Modeling of complex structures, environments and interactions between them that require high memory and performance costs, for example, prototypes of drugs in a biological media8 or detailed modeling of processes occurring inside stars.
The main part
This section is devoted to how quantum computing technologies will be implemented and developed, what problems developers may face and how these problems should be solved.
A quantum processor has already been invented: Google (72 qubits) and IBM (50 qubits) have such devices, and D-Wave systems have created a 5,000-qubit processor.9 However, there are still no working quantum computers, even though these devices are already showing record results in computing. The fact is that since this is a fairly new field for business, very few tools have been created and discoveries have been made for it. Development environments and programming languages for quantum computing (such as Q#) are just beginning to develop. New operating systems are also needed. In addition, due to the peculiarities of the operation of quantum processors, the probability of errors in an environment unprotected from external influences is increasing. For effective operation, it is necessary to maintain ultra-low temperatures and the absence of any external influences. But all this is developing now. It is not so difficult to create a programming language and an operating system, since this has already been created once. And improving the quality of protection is a matter of time. Therefore, it makes sense to say that the invention of a full-fledged quantum computer is a matter of the near future – some 10 years.
Most likely, the first to use these technologies are IT giants who have a staff of scientists and programmers and conditions corresponding to optimal work. Google has already announced that it is going to launch a quantum computer with a capacity of up to 1 million qubits in 2029.
Then, as is usually the case, the technologies will be purchased by state and military structures.
But other enterprises, even very large ones, are unlikely to be able to purchase their own quantum computers in the next decade after their creation. There are several reasons for this. The first, technological, is that quantum computers will not immediately be put on a wide stream, if only because it takes a long time to create them, and this time is measured not in weeks, but months at best. And the second one should be discussed in more detail.
This is an ethical problem of using quantum computers. The fact is that with the help of such a computer, you can crack any cipher with a public key10 in a very short period of time, and most companies just use such ciphers. In particular, the encryption systems used by modern cryptocurrencies are unstable in front of the capabilities of quantum computers. Therefore, many analysts are concerned about the creation of such devices. However, not everything is so bad, because, as it was said, at first quantum computers will only be with IT giants, who probably will not hack anyone. And in order to prevent attempts by subsequent buyers of these technologies to harm anyone, quantum encryption algorithms should be created. Since the topic of security has been repeatedly raised, the developers of quantum devices are probably already thinking about it, because otherwise the sale of quantum technologies will cause a wide resonance and criticism, which the creators, of course, do not need, because they want a good reputation for themselves. Therefore, first they will invent a quantum computer, then means of protection against quantum cyber attacks, and only then they will start selling these technologies. 

Thus, after ethical barriers are overcome and decent methods of protection against quantum cyber attacks are invented, quantum computers will be used by many large companies, banks and state corporations, research centers and med. institutions. A particularly important step will be the acquisition of quantum servers by the largest hosting companies. In this case, many business processes will be significantly accelerated, and it will also create an excellent opportunity for AI developers to train their models on such servers. Much less time will be spent on research requiring the use of machine learning, this will provide an excellent opportunity for the development of AI in general. At the same time, production automation will take place at large enterprises due to robots using AI algorithms.
The prospect of reducing the size of quantum computers also makes sense. What humanity has now, most of all resembles huge tube multimeter computers of the 40-60s. The main part, as already mentioned, is occupied by a cabinet with a refrigerator and insulation from noise and impacts (3 meters high and 20 cubic meters in volume). And the processors themselves are comparable in size to a thumb nail.11 This means that the computationally useful part of the machine is much smaller than its case. Therefore, in order to use even more computing power, it is necessary to reduce the refrigerator. Previously, humanity did not have a need to make refrigerators small, because they were needed just to accommodate more products. This need has appeared quite recently. But Finnish scientists have already been able to develop a nanoscale refrigerator that works due to the effect of quantum tunneling12: electrons passing through the screen receive a lot of energy and heat at the expense of the system itself, thereby cooling it. So far, it does not work on real qubits, but on similar systems, but, according to the source, they will switch to them in the future. Thus, the problem of reducing the "storage chamber" of a quantum computer will most likely be solved less than a decade after its creation.
And this means that it will be possible to supply quantum computers to a wide stream. They will still be expensive, but it will be possible to place them in offices. It is worth noting that they are unlikely to be needed by a wide range of consumers in the next 10 years after their creation. The most computationally expensive applications that are usually used are video games, video editors and programs for three–dimensional development. So far, modern computers can easily cope with these tasks.
But progress will not stand still, and developers will find the use of quantum computing technologies for these tasks. For example, these technologies are well suited for modeling complex physical processes, due to which game creators will be able to expand the physics in games almost to the level of physics in the real world: all interactions will be calculated almost instantly. It can also be applied when creating realistic special effects in film production.
Most likely, after quantum computers become available to ordinary consumers, they will cease to develop innovatively. This, of course, does not mean that quantum technologies will have nowhere to go. But their vector of development at that moment is now very unpredictable, especially in the framework of a small study.
From the above calculations, you can make a timeline for the introduction of quantum computing technologies:
1) 2020-2030: Active research in the field of quantum computing, improvement of the main components of a quantum computer, as well as prototypes, towards the end of the period – the creation of the first fully working device.
2) 2030-2040: Acquisition and operation of quantum computers by state structures, banks and major corporations (can be applied in improving AI in the field of planning, determining the Central Bank's key rate, optimizing business processes and automating mass production). Active development of software and components for quantum computers. The use of quantum computers in research centers.
3) 2040-2050: The emergence of cloud servers on quantum computers, the trend for AI training on cloud servers, the development of AI technologies in broad terms, automation of production in medium-sized enterprises, the trend for the miniaturization of quantum computers, the introduction of quantum computers in offices.
4) 2050-2060: Small and medium-power quantum computers will appear in many enterprises. By the end of the period, the first custom models will appear.
5) 2060+: The creation of games and graphics packages on quantum computers, the gradual emergence of these technologies among ordinary users.
The given timeline is an approximate most likely model of the process of introducing quantum computers. In reality, the life cycle of new technologies, as a rule, is set by a logistic curve: at first it has a gentle slope, growth is slow, since significant efforts of researchers lead to insignificant results, but when these researchers form a sufficient knowledge base and skills, a sharp breakthrough is made, dynamic growth is observed, a steep rise. The society has an active interest in this technology, the number of users is increasing. This happens until some point, until this technology becomes commonplace. Everything connected with it becomes already open and it ceases to be so interesting.13 The timeline adjusted for the nonlinearity of technological growth can be seen in Appendix 1.

Conclusion
Thus, in the course of the work, it was found out that the creation of a quantum computer is a completely realizable future, and quite soon. Also, many applications of this technology have been identified that are very relevant for modern society – forecasting, research, modeling and creation of "strong" artificial intelligence, automation of production processes. At the moment, there are three obstacles to the development of this technology – these are not fully developed operating systems for quantum computing, the lack of proper protection of the processor from external influences and the lack of protection from quantum cyber attacks. The solution of both the first and second and third problems is a matter of time. And the forces of those scientists who are working on it.
The main result of this work was a timeline for the development and implementation of quantum computing technologies, which can be used as a roadmap for the creators of these technologies, as well as as a forecast model that futurologists or investment funds may need.
Summing up, we can say that in the next 30 years, the technological way of mankind will change greatly, and quantum computers will play a crucial role in this.
List of used literature
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