Introduction

Today, Africa is the second largest continent on Earth, home to almost 1.5 billion people. It is incredibly rich in natural resources and minerals. The history of Africa contains information about the origin of human civilization, and the geographical location and climatic conditions give the population of the continent the opportunity to actively engage in agriculture, light industry and trade.
However, Africa is the poorest continent on Earth. The power of many States in Africa is unstable and achieved mainly in the process of a military coup. In the last 3 years alone, coups d'etat have taken place in 8 countries of this continent (the last of them occurred on August 30, 2023 in Gabon).
So what is the future of the African continent? Will he be able to get out of endless wars and poverty?
Relevance: the problems of African development are also relevant for the Russian Federation, because during the period of sanctions by Western countries, Russia needs to look for new markets for exporting goods and foreign partnerships. And, as the results of the recent Russia-Africa summit and the recent BRICS summits have shown, African countries are quite ready to cooperate.
The scientific novelty of the work lies in the previously unrealized long-term forecast of the prospects for cooperation between the countries of the African continent and the Russian Federation.
Objective: to draw up the most realistic scenarios of the situation of African countries in the global world at the turn of the XXI-XXII centuries and assess the benefits of their cooperation with Russia.
Tasks:
1. To analyze the current situation of African countries in the global political arena.
2. On the basis of the analysis, make possible options for the future development of countries.
3. Among the received scenarios, select several of the most likely ones.
4. Evaluate the role of Russia in the selected forecasts, as well as the disadvantages and advantages of such cooperation.
 
Chapter I. Characteristics of the geopolitical situation of African countries

Currently, there are 54 independent countries in Africa, 5 self-proclaimed (partially or unrecognized) states, as well as 10 foreign overseas territories. Regarding their geographical location, they are divided into 5 conditional regions. We present the main provisions of each region of Africa in table 1.
Table 1. Regional characteristics of the subregions of Africa.

The main problems of the region are the high level of emigration of the population, social inequality, unemployment, and the dependence of the economy on oil and gas prices.    Total poverty, logistical problems, problems due to natural disasters.    Frequent droughts, crisis and low agricultural productivity, inefficient use of resources and logistical problems.    Since the 1980s, there has been a civil war in Somalia, plunging the Horn of Africa into chaos. Due to total poverty, many Somalis have become involved in piracy, which endangers the transportation of goods across the Red Sea.    Environmental problems, as well as the highest unemployment rate in Africa

Thus, today most African countries are agrarian powers dependent on imports of vital resources (medicines, food (humanitarian aid), industrial equipment, etc.) from more developed countries or international funds. These States have high levels of poverty, crime and unemployment. This situation not only worsens the lives of the population, but also causes endless state military coups.
At the same time, in Africa, in addition to the previously mentioned countries, there are large regional centers (Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa), whose economy is based not only on agriculture, but also on more profitable industries (energy, tourism and mining). These powers are capable of independent political and economic activity, and also have good prospects in the future.

Chapter II. Forecasting the development of African countries in the XXI – XXII centuries. Problems and prospects

As mentioned earlier, Africa has both developed regional centers and lagging agrarian powers that are not capable of independent activity. This is the main problem of the African continent, which hinders further development. A promising international intergovernmental organization, the African Union (AU), can solve it. And the future of African states will directly depend on whether they can integrate into the AU or not. Let's consider possible options for the development of the future, depending on this factor.
Option I. Unification of all African countries under the leadership of the African Union
Let's say the African Union manages to successfully implement all the goals set in the Founding Act in the next 20-25 years. This will not only allow the creation of a single African economic space, but also contribute to the uniform progress of all participating countries. The passport of an AU citizen will be introduced (the prerequisites for the introduction of which exist in our time), a single currency and a kind of analogue of the Schengen zone, which allows in the future to review the disputed borders between states inherited from the colonial past at meetings of the Pan-African Parliament. These actions will not only save Africa from diverse ethnic conflicts (since now the borders will correspond to the real settlement of peoples and tribes), but also strengthen friendly ties between states. Joint efforts will suppress terrorist/separatist movements in poor regions; environmental problems and natural disasters in South, West and Central Africa. Thanks to open internal borders, conditions will be created for the growth of trade and entrepreneurship, which will increase the number of jobs and lead to a decrease in the number of unemployed. Construction of logistics complexes will begin on the outskirts of the Sahara Desert, in the forests of Central and West Africa. The conflict in the Horn of Africa will be over.
Most likely, the African Union will have little contact with the former metropolises in the initial stages (again due to past conflicts and public discontent). And here the Russian Federation, which has become the most important political and trade partner of African countries since the 20th century, can play a major role in its primary formation. Such cooperation will be useful for both actors: the AU will receive a lot of investments in its production, and Russia will become a new major ally in the global political arena.
This option of the future is quite feasible with the successful actions of the leadership of the African Union, as a master plan for the transformation and integration of countries into the AU for the next 50 years has already been developed.

Option II. Maintaining the status quo with the development of regional centers
Africa is a multinational continent where local beliefs, traditions and customs play a huge role in all spheres of society. Their impact on humans is particularly noticeable in small agricultural countries of Tropical Africa, where the vast majority of citizens live in rural areas.
These circumstances hinder the industrialization of the regions, as well as generally hinder the development of states. This leads to the conclusion that without changes in the internal policies of small countries or global global changes, they will not be able to develop properly and become competitive.
Let's assume that in the near future, Africa is not affected by major political, social and economic upheavals, local conflicts only occasionally occur, but the status quo still persists on the continent. The leading countries of Africa are steadily developing, while agricultural ones are deteriorating. Thus, over the entire period of time, inequality between regional centers and agrarian powers not only persists, but also increases.

Gradually, the African continent is divided into several political/economic blocs built around the major powers of east, south and west Africa. This causes an increase in social tension, and also, most likely, leads to a cold war between coalitions, which may well develop into a "hot" phase.

A special place is occupied by the developed Nordic countries, which mostly remain neutral. Being major powers in the modern world, they developed the tourism sector, oil production, and intensively traded with the whole world, which eventually forced them to choose a policy of not interfering in the internal African conflict.

A fragmented Africa is not the best scenario for the Russian Federation, since in any case Russia will need to choose and support one of the parties (which may well benefit (an ideological ally), but will destroy all past agreements between the Russian state and the rest of the African continent) or, again, maintain neutrality and become a mediator in peace negotiations.

Such a future option is possible (especially with the failure of ideas about the unification of Africa), since even today there are contradictions between states that may grow into military clashes in the future.

Option III. Neocolonialism
When predicting the future of African countries, one should not forget about the external influence on the continent. So, one of the possible options may well be the economic colonization of underdeveloped African countries by world powers (and not necessarily European ones).

For the first time, the main provisions of neocolonialism were described in his book "Neocolonialism, the last stage of imperialism"[8] by the first President of the Republic of Ghana, Kwame Nkrumah:

"The essence of neocolonialism is that the state that obeys it is theoretically independent and possesses all the external attributes of international sovereignty. In fact, its economic system and, consequently, its policies are controlled from the outside <...> The result of neocolonialism is that foreign capital is used for exploitation, and not for the development of less developed parts of the world. Investments in the context of neo-colonialism increase, rather than reduce, the gap between the rich and poor countries of the world."

Thus, we can see the insignificant prerequisites of neocolonialism in the modern world. However, in the future, African countries may well face such a problem due to the factors inherent in most of them:

Underdevelopment;
Poverty of the population;
Frequent succession of power through coups (risks of civil wars);
Frequent economic crises;
The wealth of natural resources (which are extracted in small amounts).
It is impossible to name specific conclusions about the benefits of such an outcome for Russia, because everything will depend on whether it will participate in the new "partition of the colonies" or not.

Option IV. Strengthening of radical Islamists
During the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023, a tense political situation developed in the region neighboring North Africa. The aggressive actions of Hamas have stirred up the world community and may in the future give an impetus to the activation of African cells of radical Islamists. This will be most acutely reflected in countries where the majority of the population professes Islam (northern and western African countries, as well as Somalia).

Most likely, the actions of the groups will be secretive and thoughtful. Thus, terrorists will be able to use rallies in support of Palestine for their own purposes (terrorist attacks, popularization of ideas, reduction of people's loyalty to the government), radicalize the population, set up a religious war. It is also worth noting that domestic terrorism is an integral element of armed conflicts in Africa[9]. Therefore, the Al-Shabab group may begin a new stage of the civil war in Somalia. In addition to it, the main terrorist forces in Africa will be Boko Haram in Nigeria, Ansar al-Din in Mali, and Al-Qaeda may also be interested in the region.

Such radical actions will lead to hundreds of victims, so that the entire African society (with global help) will have to combine efforts and resources to fight terrorism in their territories.

In these events, the Russian Federation will play an important role by sending humanitarian aid to the anti-terrorist coalition (or even introducing a peacekeeping contingent), which will lead to an improvement in Russian-African relations.

Option V. The emergence of the gendarme State
Let's say that in one of the African powers (most likely in one of the regional centers), a government comes to power with the goal of preserving peace and the status quo on the African continent. This state participates in almost all inter-African conflicts (somewhere through direct intervention, somewhere as a diplomatic mediator), it prevents revolutionary movements, if possible puts loyal governments at the head of other African countries, thereby increasing its sphere of influence. And eventually unites almost the entire continent.

This option is quite feasible with the effective actions of the government of the gendarme State. Moreover, in the modern world, Rwanda, which has repeatedly been involved in African conflicts, may well claim this role[10].

Thanks to the active development of Russian-African relations, a strong African power will become a possible economic and political ally for the Russian Federation, so this outcome of events is quite good for Russia's foreign policy.

Conclusion
The African continent is multifaceted. Thus, it combines both poor agrarian powers dependent on the import of vital resources, and large regional centers capable of independent political and economic activity. African countries are divided into 5 subregions, each of which has its own special advantages and challenges.

In the process of forecasting, 5 likely options for the future of the countries of the African continent were identified. Each of them shows the development of events in Africa based on possible actions or inactions of States. Moreover, both radical cases and milder outcomes of the future are presented.

Of course, the best and most realistic option (both for the development of African countries and for strengthening Russian-African relations) can be called Option I: "Unification of all African countries under the leadership of the African Union."

By uniting in the African Union, all Powers will have the opportunity for equal development. Conditions will be created for the growth of trade and entrepreneurship, which will increase the number of jobs and lead to a decrease in the number of unemployed. Disputed borders between states will be reviewed at meetings of the Pan-African Parliament, which will save Africa from diverse ethnic conflicts. Joint efforts will suppress terrorist/separatist movements in poor regions; environmental problems. The conflict in the Horn of Africa will be over.

However, there are corresponding risks in this option. All success depends on the actions of the leadership of the African Union, as well as the willingness of States to integrate into the AU. Moreover, at the final stages of the AU master plan, Afro-skepticism sentiments may appear in society (by analogy with euroscepticism), which will also interfere with the full development of the African Union.

At first glance, the new major player in the political arena is dangerous for the economy of the Russian Federation, because African countries will no longer depend on the supply of vital resources. African States will become more independent, and their opinions will need to be taken into account.

But it is worth remembering that Russia has been the most important political and trade partner of African countries since the 20th century. It is also worth considering that, most likely, the African Union will have little contact with the former metropolises at the initial stages. And here the Russian Federation can play a big role in its initial development and economic recovery. Such cooperation will be useful for both actors: the AU will receive a lot of investments in its production, and Russia will become a new major ally in the global political arena.