Annotation:
This article examines the prospects for the future of the Russian and global economies. It is based on research and forecasts from various organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Reviewing the forecast data, the article discusses the expected trends in economic growth, inflation, world trade and other factors that may affect the future economic development of Russia and the world. Both positive and negative factors that may affect the economic situation in the future are analyzed.
The purpose of the article is to provide an overview of the current state and forecasts of the economy, as well as to better understand what challenges and opportunities may arise in the coming years for Russia and the global economy.
Keywords: forecasting, planning, economic growth.
Introduction. The future of the Russian and global economies is an important and relevant issue for discussion. Today's world has witnessed significant changes in the global economic system, and all this has an impact on the Russian Federation.
First, it should be noted that the global economy is strongly influenced by technological progress. The development of information technology, artificial intelligence and process automation is leading to revolutionary shifts in the economy. Russia, as a large country with resource potential, should actively introduce innovative technologies and improve its competitiveness in the international market.
Secondly, the global economy is experiencing a wave of globalization, which contributes to strengthening the integration of countries and the exchange of goods and services. Russia should actively engage in these processes and develop its economic ties with other countries. However, at the same time, Russia must take into account its national interests and protect its economy from potential threats. Ensuring economic security and developing domestic consumption are important factors for the successful future of the Russian economy.
Thirdly, the global economy is facing the challenge of climate change and the need to move towards sustainable development. This creates new opportunities for the development of a green economy and the use of alternative energy sources. Despite the fact that Russia is one of the leading producers and suppliers of oil and gas, it should also actively explore opportunities for the development of renewable energy sources and participate in global initiatives to combat climate change.
The global economy is also being influenced by political and geopolitical events. Conflicts and tensions between countries can lead to economic sanctions and trade restrictions. Russia should actively develop its diplomatic relations and participate in international dialogues in order to ensure stability and predictability in the global economy.
The future of the Russian economy is currently the subject of discussion and analysis. The influence of various factors on the economic situation in the country causes interest and uncertainty about its future development.
The introduction of large-scale international sanctions against Russia after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine was accompanied by forecasts of the collapse of the financial system and a decrease in the country's GDP by 10-15% in annual terms. In late February and early March, there was panic in the foreign exchange market, inflation accelerated sharply, and car factories stopped due to a lack of components, which corresponded to these forecasts. However, by the end of spring, the situation began to stabilize, and forecasts of a decline in GDP by the end of the year varied around 2.5-3.0%. The latest Rosstat estimate showed only a -2.1% decline in GDP.
Table 1 - Interval dynamics of Russia's GDP, %

In addition to the main macroeconomic factors that are usually taken into account when making economic forecasts, it is also necessary to take into account behavioral factors related to previous experiences, expectations and incentives of economic agents. It is important to note that this is not the first time such "inconsistencies" between reality and theoretical predictions have occurred in Russia. One of the most striking examples is the 1990s, when, after the liberation of prices and the opening of the economy, instead of the expected bankruptcy of inefficient companies and their exit from the market, the phenomenon of a "virtual economy" based on barter, offsets and non-payments arose.
Obviously, in 2022, the situation in the Russian economy strongly influenced the contradictory effects of restrictions on Russian exports. The reduction in physical export volumes in certain sectors has led to a significant increase in prices for oil and other commodities. This led to an increase in budget revenues and an increase in profits of large companies, which, in turn, supported demand in the domestic market. The refusal of many global companies to import into Russia and restrictions on the withdrawal of capital from the country (including "personal sanctions") contributed to the strengthening of the ruble. The withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian Federation was accompanied by a decrease in competition in many industries where they operated, and an increase in the income of domestic companies occupying vacant market niches.
According to the latest OECD economic forecast, the global economy has started to improve, but the recovery will be weak. The economic forecast predicts a slowdown in global GDP growth from 3.3% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, followed by an acceleration to 2.9% in 2024.
Lower energy prices are reducing the burden on household budgets, business and consumer sentiment are recovering, albeit from low levels, and China's reopening has given a boost to global activity.

Figure 1 – Real GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024

According to the June forecast of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Russian economy will decline by 1.5% this year and by 0.4% next year. These forecasts are higher than the March estimates, when the OECD predicted a 2.1% reduction in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. In November 2022, OECD analysts predicted a decline of 5.6% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024.
According to the OECD, global economic growth will slow to 2.7% this year, after 3.3% in 2022, and next year global growth will accelerate to 2.9%. According to the World Bank's published forecast on June 6, real world GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% after 3.1% in 2022. Growth of 2.4% is projected in 2024.
Forecasts for the dynamics of the Russian economy have also been improved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts GDP growth of 0.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, as well as the European Commission, which predicts a drop of 0.9% in 2023 and growth of 1.3% in 2024.
The economic recovery remains fragile and risks are shifting downwards. Uncertainty about the development of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine and its global consequences remains a key issue. Some favorable conditions that have helped reduce energy demand this year, such as a mild winter in Europe, may not happen again next year.
Maintaining inflation is another key downside risk. Core inflation remains stable amid strong service price increases and higher profits in some sectors. The impact of higher interest rates is increasingly felt throughout the economy, and restrictive monetary policy, while necessary, risks further increasing financial vulnerability, especially in highly indebted countries.
Against this background, the Forecast contains a number of policy recommendations emphasizing that the need to reduce inflation, adjust fiscal policy and promote sustainable growth entails serious problems for policymakers.
Monetary policy should remain restrictive until there are clear signs that underlying inflationary pressures will be steadily reduced. Fiscal support, which played a vital role in helping the global economy during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, should be reduced, becoming more focused and focused on future needs. Widespread energy-related support should be discontinued as energy prices fall and minimum wages and social benefits increase, taking into account past inflation in many countries.
 “Fiscal policy should give priority to public investments that increase productivity, including those that stimulate the transition to a green economy and increase the supply of labor and skills," said Claire Lombardelli, Chief Economist at the OECD. “Renewed reform efforts aimed at reducing constraints on labor and commodity markets, as well as resuming private investment and productivity growth, will increase sustainable living standards and strengthen the recovery from the current low growth prospects.”
If we consider the future of the Russian economy, the influence of various factors on the economic situation in the country causes uncertainty about its future development.
First, the issue of Russia's transition to an innovative economy remains one of the main tasks. The need to develop high-tech industries and create innovative products is becoming increasingly urgent. This implies significant changes in the educational system, scientific approach, investment policy and government support for innovation.
Secondly, in the context of globalization and constant changes in the world market, it is necessary to ensure the competitiveness of domestic producers. It is important to develop export opportunities and attract foreign investment. To do this, it is necessary to improve the investment climate, simplify business registration procedures, and increase the availability of financial resources for small and medium-sized businesses.
Thirdly, the development of human capital is an important component of the future of the economy. The relationship between education, science and innovation is a key factor in ensuring long-term economic growth. Investments in education, support for scientific research and the development of human resources will contribute to increasing Russia's productivity and competitiveness in the global market.
In addition, it is important to pay attention to the socio-economic aspects of development. Insufficient average wages, high levels of inequality, and poor access to quality medical and educational services remain problems that need to be addressed in the future. Improving social security and the standard of living of citizens will contribute to the stability and development of the economy.
The future of the global economy is the subject of widespread debate and discussion among economists, politicians and entrepreneurs. Currently, we are facing many challenges that have an impact on the economic system and determine its future direction.
First, technological progress and the digital revolution play a key role in the future of the global economy. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, blockchain and other innovative technologies are changing the ways of production, communication and consumption. Businesses must be prepared to adapt to these changes in order to remain competitive.
Secondly, globalization continues to evolve, uniting national economies and creating new opportunities for trade and investment. However, we also face challenges such as growing protectionism and trade conflicts between countries. In the future, the global economy needs cooperation and mutual understanding in order to overcome these challenges and continue development.
Thirdly, sustainable development is becoming an increasingly important aspect of the global economy. Climate change, environmental threats and resource scarcity require businesses and governments to make responsible decisions. The development of a green economy, the use of renewable energy sources, and energy efficiency improvements will all be key factors in the future.
In addition, it is also important to note demographic changes and population growth in different regions of the world. This can lead to uneven distribution of resources, social and economic inequalities. The development of social and economic policies aimed at inclusive growth and equitable distribution of benefits will be an important aspect of the future global economy.
Conclusion. Therefore, it can be concluded that the future of the global economy depends on many factors, and their interrelationship and influence are difficult to predict with full confidence. However, it is important to recognize the need to adapt to technological change, develop a sustainable economy, support global cooperation and focus on socio-economic justice. Only in this way will we be able to create a favorable and prosperous global economic system for future generations.
In conclusion, the future of the Russian economy depends on various factors that require comprehensive measures and an integrated approach. The successful development of the Russian economy requires innovation, competitiveness, human capital development and improvement of the socio-economic situation. Only in this way will Russia be able to ensure stability, growth and prosperity in economic terms.
Thus, it can be concluded that the future of the Russian and global economies depends on many factors, such as technological progress, globalization, sustainable development and political developments. Russia must actively adapt to these changes, develop its competitive advantages and strive for innovative growth. Only such a strategy will allow Russia to thrive in the future economic system and play an important role in the global economy.