Автор: МИЦКЕВИЧ КСЕНИЯ АЛЕКСЕЕВНА | MICKIEWICZ KSENIA
FROM THE AUTHOR
Today, the whole world is excited about the sudden emergence and spread of artificial intelligence technologies and its rapidly expanding capabilities. Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most advanced technologies of our time. He is able to perform many tasks that were previously considered the prerogative of man. AI can process large amounts of information, make decisions, and perform routine operations. This leads to automation of many types of work, which, in turn, causes serious changes in the labor market.
On the one hand, AI creates new employment opportunities. It opens up new industries and professions, requires new skills and competencies. On the other hand, AI leads to job losses. Many professions that were considered stable and highly paid are under threat of automation and displacement by AI technologies. The above is a kind of personification of the plots of the works of science fiction of the last century, which implies the interest shown by the author in this topic.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of AI on the global labor market in the context of which professions will be replaced by its technologies in the near future, as well as to assess the capabilities of AI in the field of forecasting and analyzing the situation on the labor market and compare it with the forecasting capabilities of scientists and specialists in this field.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved:
- the international experience of AI influence on the labor market has been studied;
- an assessment of the labor market in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus was carried out using data obtained by experts and AI;
- a comparative analysis of the data obtained has been made.
Generative AI (a type of artificial intelligence system capable of generating text, images, or other media data in response to prompts) was used as AI.
1 INTERNATIONAL FORECASTS OF THE IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE LABOR MARKET
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised new concerns about large-scale job losses caused by the ability to automate a rapidly expanding set of tasks (including non-routine cognitive tasks) and its potential to impact every sector of the economy.
In addition, there are concerns about the well-being of employees and the wider work environment related to the idea that AI may soon become widespread in workplaces, and undermine people's place in it. However, AI also has the potential to complement and expand human capabilities, which in the long run will lead to increased productivity, increased demand for human labor and improved job quality. It follows that, on the one hand, global job cuts in the labor market are associated with the development and expansion of AI capabilities due to the greatest effectiveness of the use of AI in order to automate various kinds of work processes; on the other hand, the spread and widespread introduction of AI mechanisms already creates prerequisites for the creation of professions related to its maintenance and implementation, as well as to increase the importance of human labor in general.
According to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute, using the capabilities of generative AI by 2030, automation will be able to take on tasks that will account for 21.5% of the time worked in the US economy. At the same time, the addition of generative AI capabilities will allow automating about 30% of today's working time, which will especially increase the efficiency of work in the following areas [1].
According to the study, by 2030, an increase in jobs in the healthcare sector is expected, with about 23% increase in demand for jobs in STEM (technical, scientific and engineering narrow-profile specialties) due to the transition of the economy to digital technologies. At the same time, job losses are expected in the field of office support, customer service and catering.
As can be seen, workers employed in positions with lower wages and educational requirements may suffer the most.
According to the report of the World Economic Forum "The Future of Work" [2], based on data from a survey of the world's largest employers (803 companies participated in the survey, which together employ more than 11 million workers and cover 27 industries and 45 countries of the world), over the next 5 years due to the influence of such factors as the introduction of AI, digitization and other factors (the transition to clean energy and the redistribution of supply chains) are expected to change a quarter of all jobs in the world. The introduction of AI, in turn, will have a twofold impact on the market situation: despite significant job cuts in certain industries (about 75% of the surveyed companies announced plans to introduce AI technologies over the next 5 years, which will cause a reduction of up to 26 million jobs in administrative and accounting positions, including cashiers, sellers and accountants), the impact of most technologies will be positive over the next 5 years, as big data analytics and cybersecurity will become the main factors of employment growth.
The report says that, according to employers' forecasts, the progressive introduction of technology and growing digitalization in the near future will cause the greatest changes in the labor market and will become a positive factor for job creation. At the same time, more than three-quarters of the surveyed companies plan to implement big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence technologies in the next five years.
The forecast of the investment bank Goldman Sachs [3] says the following: artificial intelligence will have a serious impact on many industries, affecting the employment situation in the health and agriculture sectors. As artificial intelligence continues to evolve, the demand for workers in robotics and software development is expected to grow at an incredible rate. At the same time, it is reported that over the past 20 years, the relentlessly developing automation processes have deprived 1.7 million people of professions. However, research shows that automation technologies will be able to create up to 97 million new jobs by 2025. Table 1.2 shows a list of the most and least sought-after professions of the future according to Goldman Sachs [3].
Thus, based on the forecasts, the contents of which are given above, it is safe to conclude that generative AI technologies have already begun the process of creating a new era in the labor market. According to forecasts, professions such as office workers and service sector workers will become the most vulnerable to the development of generative AI technologies, while STEM specialists will be increasingly in demand by employers. Some forecasts report a further increase in demand for medical workers. Broadly speaking, in order to take full advantage of generative AI and make work more productive, employers and broader ecosystems will need to establish clear guidelines and limitations related to the use of AI, and employees will have to consider automation processes not as job destroyers, but as means to improve work. Employees will need to master the skills of managing and using AI and automation technologies in general and, importantly, use the rest of their time wisely to focus on more valuable activities.
2 GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE LABOR MARKET: THE EXPERIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND PROSPECTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
As part of this work, we will conduct a study of the labor market of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus using the capabilities of generative artificial intelligence (AI), represented by the chatbot with artificial intelligence ChatGPT (version GPT-3.5), developed by OpenAI, and the chatbot with artificial intelligence Bard, developed by Google based on the LaMDA language model. Also, to complete the picture, we will compare forecasts and results of labor market analysis of the above-mentioned countries, generated by AI, with forecasts and results of labor market analysis created by scientists and researchers in the field of labor market.
In April 2023, the Work will begin.ru and SberPodbor conducted a large-scale study on the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market and the prospects for its development, which was attended by more than 300 employers from all regions of Russia. 9% of the companies participating in the survey have Jobs.ru and SberPodbor believe that the introduction of neural networks will contribute to the emergence of new professions for technology management [4]; 7% of the surveyed organizations have already tried the use of AI in marketing, document management and IT. 37% are confident that the ability to work with AI will increase the market value of specialist services.
To conduct our own research, we turned to the GPT-3.5 version of the ChatGPT chatbot, information about the world of which ends in September 2021, then for transparency and clarity of the study, we turn to the analysis of the labor market of the Russian Federation provided by the job recruitment service.<url> [5] for 2021.
According to the Job service.<url> [5] In the third quarter of 2021, there was a sharp increase in the number of open vacancies in Russia. Compared to the same period in 2020, their number increased by 48%. This is due to the economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. The largest increase in the number of vacancies occurred in the field of trade (by 226%) and finance and insurance (by 120%). There was also a high demand for employees in marketing (by 74%), among students (by 64%), in the IT industry (by 63%) and in the service sector (by 49%). There was also an increase in the number of vacancies in other industries, but it was not as significant [5].
Now let's look at the analysis of the labor market of the Russian Federation, created by the chatbot with artificial intelligence ChatGPT (version GPT-3.5). To get a correct answer to the question, we formulate the following request: "Analyze the labor market of the Russian Federation in 2021 and make your own forecast based on the data recorded at the moment of September 2021" (Appendix A).
This response reflects the general trends in the labor market of the Russian Federation and indicates the decisive influence of epidemiological, political and other factors on the situation on the labor market of the Russian Federation. Let's formulate another request in order to get more specifics in the analysis under consideration: "Name the six most and six least sought-after professions in the Russian Federation at the time of September 2021" (Appendix B). Based on the response generated by AI, it can be concluded that in 2021, information technology specialists, medical professionals, as well as engineers and other technical specialists were in the greatest demand. At the same time, workers in tourism, retail, construction, transport, manufacturing, as well as hotel staff were the least popular. The AI forecast does not agree in everything with the forecast of the Job service.ru: so, ChatGPT mentions the lack of demand for retail workers, while workers in the retail sector are working according to the data.ru were the most in-demand specialists in the labor market of the Russian Federation in 2021.
Then we will analyze the current situation on the labor market of the Russian Federation based on the data prepared by the Work services.ru and SberPodbor [4].
According to the data of the analysis under consideration, in recent years there has been a tendency in the Russian labor market to strengthen the positions of applicants. This is due to the shortage of personnel, which is becoming more acute.
In March 2023, the recruitment situation became even more difficult. In three months (from January to March), the number of open vacancies increased by 28.4%. Approximately one in four vacancies in the first quarter of 2023 related to trade (27% of the total). The industry of production and agriculture accounted for 13%, and the sphere of transport and logistics — 12%. 8% of the total number of vacancies are open for specialists in the service sector. The same vacancy rate is designed for office workers and employees without special training. Even without work experience, it is not difficult to find a job now. Moreover, the number of vacancies for such candidates is increasing. In the first quarter of this year, the number of offers for people without experience increased by 75%. Specialists in the field of beauty and health are becoming more and more in demand. The largest increase in vacancies from January to March occurred in this area (+89%). The number of offers in marketing increased by 74%, and in the field of culture and education — by 73%. Industrial and agricultural enterprises are actively looking for employees, vacancies in this area have increased by 59% in three months.
Next, let's look at the analysis and partial forecast of the labor market of the Russian Federation, generated by the chatbot with artificial intelligence Bard, developed by Google. As in the case of ChatGPT, we formulate a request: "Based on the latest data available to you, analyze the labor market of the Russian Federation in 2023 and make your own forecast for 2024." We received the answer presented in Appendix B. Based on this forecast, we can say that AI has identified the main trends that will operate in the labor market of the Russian Federation, presented in Appendix K.
Let's formulate another request: "Name the six most and six least demanded professions in the Russian Federation in 2023-2024." The answer of the chatbot with Bard AI is given in appendix G. As you can see, the forecast of the chatbot with Bard AI indicates the greatest demand for professions in the field of information technology, manufacturing, transport and logistics, construction, import substitution, and among the least in demand workers indicates specialties that do not require special qualifications, such as cashiers, waiters, sellers, cleaners, security guards, movers. It is worth noting that the forecast and analysis generated by AI differs from the analysis provided by the Work services.<url> and SberPodbor. Thus, in the structure of vacancies for 2023, workers in the field of "Work without special training / without experience" are in 6th place, while AI makes representatives of this field among the least in demand.
Similarly, we will conduct a study of the labor market of the Republic of Belarus. As in the case of the labor market analysis of the Russian Federation, for research we will turn to the GPT-3.5 version of the ChatGPT chatbot, information about the world of which ends in September 2021, then for clarity of the study we will turn to the labor market analysis of the Republic of Belarus provided by the rabota job selection service.by [6] for 2021. In the rabota analysis.It was said that in 2020 there was a decrease in vacancies in areas related to entertainment, recreation, mass events, as well as a decrease in the number of vacancies and training programs for students and young professionals. Even then, there was a steady trend towards an increase in demand for IT (information technology) specialists, as well as specialists in the field of sales, representatives of working specialties, transport and logistics [6]. At the same time, in 2021, the demand in the labor market did not match the supply. This is due to the fact that some specialists were forced to look for a new job or part-time job due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Later, when the situation in the labor market stabilized, the number of vacancies began to grow, and competition decreased. However, many applicants took a wait-and-see attitude, refusing to look for a new job due to financial or family circumstances.
Let's analyze the assessment of the labor market of the Republic of Belarus, generated by the chatbot with artificial intelligence ChatGPT (version GPT-3.5). In order to get a correct answer to the question, it was necessary to formulate the correct query. The created request sounded like this: "Analyze the labor market of the Republic of Belarus in 2021 and make your own forecast based on the data recorded at the moment of September 2021." We received the following response from the chatbot, which included the content provided in Appendix D.
This response contained only general information about possible trends in the labor market of the Republic of Belarus in 2021, so it was decided to get a more specific answer. The following request was formulated: "Name the six most and six least demanded professions in the Republic of Belarus at the time of September 2021." The response received is presented in appendix E. From the response generated by AI, it can be concluded that its analysis and forecast regarding the labor market of the Republic of Belarus indicate the fact of a general assessment of the entire set of epidemiological, political and economic factors that influenced the state in which the labor market of the Republic of Belarus was in 2021 by artificial intelligence. At the same time, among the most in-demand specialties, first of all, specialties related to the development, implementation, and testing of software, specialties in the field of Internet marketing and medical specialties are indicated, and the list of the least in-demand professions consists of professions in the service sector, retail trade, as well as teachers and educators, guides and professions in the field of art and design. At the same time, the analysis generated by AI does not fully converge with the analysis created by employees rabota.by . For example, in the list of the most in-demand professions, AI does not mention anything about sales workers who were the most in-demand specialists in the labor market of the Republic of Belarus in 2021, according to the job selection service rabota.by .
We will analyze the current situation on the labor market of the Republic of Belarus, based on data for 2022. According to the analysis of the labor market of the Republic of Belarus by the ilex service.by [7], in 2022, there was a great demand in the country for workers of various kinds of technical and working specialties: from engineers to locksmiths and loaders. Based on this, it can be assumed that there are opportunities for an increase in demand for secondary special education among young people, while office support workers and administrative employees will periodically retrain as representatives of technical specialties.
As in 2021, there is still a demand for sales workers in the republic, the most in demand of them are sales managers, cashiers and sales consultants.
There is also a decrease in vacancies in IT specialties, but this year there is still demand for such specialties as software testing, PHP development, Java development and Frontend. In addition, the demand for data analysis specialists is currently resuming and strengthening, rabota experts say.by [8]. At the same time, in a recent study of the previously mentioned rabota job recruitment service.by [9] it is reported that at the beginning of 2023 there was a tendency to increase the number of vacancies, moreover, the beginning of the second quarter was similar: in the second quarter of 2023, compared with the second quarter of 2022, an increase in the number of vacancies was recorded in all areas except the field of "Information Technology", since there was a slight decrease of about 2.7%. There is a serious shortage of employees of working and applied specialties.
The largest number of vacancies was recorded in the field of sales. Also in second place in terms of the number of vacancies are vacancies related to the beginning of a student's career. At the same time, the situation on the labor market of the Republic of Belarus in 2023 and 2022 is somewhat different from the situation in 2021: despite the fact that sales vacancies account for the largest number of the total vacancy structure, one can notice a serious decrease in the number of vacancies in the field of information technology and an increase in vacancies associated with the beginning of a student's career.
Let's consider the analysis and partial forecast for the labor market of the Republic of Belarus, generated by a chatbot with Bard AI. As in the case of ChatGPT, we formulate a request: "Based on the latest data available to you, analyze the labor market of the Republic of Belarus in 2023 and make your own forecast for 2024." We received the following response, presented in appendix J. As you can see, this forecast analysis reflects only general trends in the labor market of the Republic of Belarus, however, it is very important to note the fact that these trends largely coincide with the real trends described earlier in the forecast of the job selection service rabota.by namely: a decrease in demand for IT specialists, an increase in demand for workers in the field of sales, an increase in demand for students at the beginning of their careers, an increase in demand for representatives of the working staff.
It is worth noting that in the forecast created by the AI, similar to the forecast of the rabota service are viewed.by verbal turns and formulations, which suggests that when generating its own response, the AI actively used existing forecasts for the labor market of the country in question and made its own conclusions and explanations based on them.
Let's formulate another query similar to the query that we created for the chatbot with ChatGPT AI: "Name the six most and six least demanded professions in the Republic of Belarus in 2023-2024." The application contains the response of the chatbot in question with AI. This forecast provided information that is completely unlike any of the previously considered forecasts. At the same time, as in the ChatGPT forecast, the professions of engineers and IT specialists are listed here in the first places in popularity and demand.
Let's look at the list of the least popular professions presented in appendix I. This list also does not repeat any of the forecasts described above, however, some similarities can be noted with the global forecasts discussed earlier.
3 PROFESSIONS OF THE FUTURE: THE OPINION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
FOR 2050 AND 2100
Let's analyze the forecast for the most and least demanded professions in the world in 2050, generated by the chatbot with artificial intelligence Bard. To receive the submitted answer, the following request was formulated: "Tell us about the most and least demanded professions in 2050 in the world." The answer received is given in appendix L. As can be seen, the least in demand will be professions that do not require special qualifications, and therefore are highly susceptible to partial replacement or complete displacement by automation processes. At the same time, specialists in the field of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, robotics, data analytics, as well as healthcare and education will remain indispensable due to their exclusivity and requirements for combining a large body of knowledge and a high level of qualification with some important human traits such as emotional intelligence, empathy, as well as awareness of responsibility for their own work.
However, the previous question is more economic in nature, so we will ask artificial intelligence a couple more important questions related to the topic of our work. Let's formulate the following question: "Which professions will be able to be completely replaced by artificial intelligence by 2050, and which ones will remain relevant?", we received the answer provided in appendix M. From the answer, we can conclude that, according to the chatbot with AI Bard, professions subject to reduction due to automation processes will be replaced with the help of AI technologies.
To get a more complete picture, let's ask the same question, only for the year 2100. The answer received is given in appendix N. As can be seen, in this forecast, the trends remain the same: professions that do not require high qualifications will decrease, while professions that require knowledge, experience, and the use of traits biologically inherent only in humans, such as empathy, will remain in demand in the next century.
POSTSCRIPT
The conducted research allows us to draw the following conclusions:
The forecasts generated by AI do not completely coincide with the forecasts created by scientists and experts in the field of labor markets of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus;
AI forecasts are not absolutely accurate: for example, ChatGPT, formally located in September 2021, claims that one of the least demanded professions in the Republic of Belarus will be professions in the field of production, while today these professions are in the sixth place in the vacancy structure in terms of demand, which indicates their relevance. ChatGPT also indicates an increase in demand for IT specialists, while in 2023 a decrease in the number of vacancies for representatives of this field is registered;
The forecasts created by AI are not completely original, that is, they somehow represent some product of the analysis of world forecasts regarding the labor market, forecasts for the labor market of individual countries and, perhaps, some of their conclusions, which can sometimes be very unexpected and ambiguous.
Thus, artificial intelligence, provided for general use, is not yet able to independently make correct conclusions regarding the labor markets of various countries. However, as we know, generative AI is able to learn independently based on various information that already exists. Firstly, AI will be able to make forecasts in real time, which will allow it to react faster to changes in the labor market. Secondly, AI will be able to take into account more factors than humans, which will make its predictions more accurate. However, despite these advantages, it is necessary to take into account the potential risks of using AI to predict the labor market: the forecast may be biased, as well as used to manipulate the labor market. In general, using AI to predict the labor market has both advantages and risks. In order to minimize risks, it is necessary to carefully monitor the use of AI and take into account its potential limitations.
According to AI himself, by 2050 and 2100, the trends of artificial intelligence replacing professions that do not require special qualifications, such as cashiers, movers, sellers, will become more and more relevant, while specialists in the field of education, healthcare, as well as the IT sector will remain relevant and irreplaceable.
It is inevitable that a considerable number of professions will be replaced by artificial intelligence in the coming years, which today seems to be somewhat fantastic. However, this information only indicates that in the modern world technologies are reaching a new level of importance, which in turn will create prerequisites for the emergence of a large number of new, more modern professions.
You can view the original work (with tables and appendices) in the attached file