Автор: СИТНИКОВ МАКСИМ СЕРГЕЕВИЧ | SITNIKOV MAXIM
Introduction
The issues of technology development and integration into the life of the whole society have been studied by scientists for many decades. For example, artificial intelligence, which is today the main "end-to-end" technology not only of the future, but also of the present, was the object of research by many scientists in the second half of the last century. One of the most famous in this field should be considered computer scientist John McCarthy, who in 1956 at a conference in Dartmouth (USA) used the term "artificial intelligence" for the first time in history. At the present stage of development, artificial intelligence technologies are used in a wide variety of areas of life (information generation, operation of the smart city system, the concept of the Internet of Things, etc.). Despite all the positive potential of the artificial intelligence sector, an important problem remains unresolved. The fact is that sometimes the functioning of artificial intelligence technologies is carried out according to the "black box" model. This can lead to adverse consequences. Perhaps for this reason, Yu.V. Sidelnikov points out that it is necessary to pay attention to the issue of controlling the development of artificial intelligence. To some extent, the position of A.I. Ageev looks similar.
Recently, scientists from various sciences have been actively beginning to explore the issue of the emergence and smooth integration of immersive virtual worlds technologies. We are talking about such a phenomenon as the metaverse. In the simplest sense, the metaverse can be represented as a special immersive (access is carried out using virtual and augmented reality technologies) virtual space with its own social and economic systems. It seems that the most complete and, at the same time, simple model of the metaverse is reflected in the film "The first player to get ready". Analysis of statistical data from the Institute for Statistical Research and the Economics of Knowledge (iFORA) based at the Higher School of Economics shows that the metaverse has great potential for a wide variety of areas of life. This fact is confirmed by the special interest in the development of metaverses not only from business, but also from the state. Recently, some developed countries have been trying to build their own national metaverses. For example, the People's Republic of China has adopted a plan to create its own clusters for metaverses for the period up to 2025.
Scientists have long known that one of the functions of science is to predict some abstract or concrete results. According to the author of this work, the convergence of artificial intelligence technologies and the metaverse will largely determine the entire infrastructure of the future reality. Based on this, the author makes a futurological attempt to determine the prospects and threats that humanity will inevitably face by the year 2100.
It all starts with an idea....
Man is the highest link of civilization due to the functioning of his neural network, the full understanding of which still remains a mystery to scientists. At the same time, it is definitely worth agreeing with the position of T.V. Chernihiv, who notes that the brain needs constant training no less than muscle tissue. Reading, serious music and movies allow you to keep your brain in a combat-ready state for a long time. In other words, it is necessary to ensure that the "brain thinks". Therefore, the key factor of human development should be considered an idea as a set of some stable thoughts about a specific object. Thanks to the development of ideas, a person can be called a person. Otherwise, the fate of the "person" will be determined – death (spiritual and/or physical).
The world of science fiction has no borders and is a fertile ground for presenting ideas of the future through literary works. Surely, among educated people it is difficult to meet someone who would not be familiar with the work of the science fiction writer Isaac Asimov. In one of his works (a collection of short stories "I, the robot"), he formulated the well-known three laws of robotics:
1) a robot cannot harm a person or, by its inaction, allow a person to be harmed;
2) the robot must obey all human orders, except in cases where this is contrary to the first law;
3) the robot must take care of its safety to the extent that it does not contradict the first and second laws.
Despite the seeming fantasticism of the presented axioms, in modern conditions they acquire a legal character. Over the past 5-7 years, Russian and foreign legal scholars have noted that the creation and use of all forms of artificial intelligence should be accompanied by a logically correct and effective development of legal regulation. Over the past few years, the legislation of many countries (including Russia) has undergone changes in the field of artificial intelligence. Most likely, the most discussed initiative adopted in the European Union today (to come into force in 2024) is devoted to the legal regulation of relations on the use of artificial intelligence technologies (link to the initiative). Scientists note that a key aspect of the adopted initiative is due to the presence of a classification of artificial intelligence systems depending on the risk group: unacceptable risk, high risk, minimal or limited risk. Unacceptable risk implies a complete ban on the creation and use of artificial intelligence technologies. High risk is expressed in the establishment of certain requirements for the use of artificial intelligence technologies. An analysis of the provisions of the legislation of many countries gives reason to say that there is a clearly traceable connection between the laws of robotics and the general meaning of the law on the regulation of artificial intelligence.
The widespread excitement about the topic of the metaverse is sometimes associated with the appeal of the director of the Meta company Mark Zuckerberg, made by him in the fall of 2021. However, it should be borne in mind that the initial basis for the origin of the concept of the metaverse should be considered the world of science fiction. The ancestor of the metaverse model should be considered Neil Stevenson, who in his work "Snow crash" described the model of the future through the prism of virtual reality, simulating physical reality. It is worth noting that in the early stages of the development of the direction of the metaverses along the Gartner curve, many critical statements were made regarding this phenomenon. The metaverse was often viewed as a fantastic utopian theory for "blind" investment. To date, the doctrine presents a sufficient number of scientific and practical works devoted to the synergy of metaverses with such areas of life as, for example, education, medicine, marketing, tourism. Moreover, in addition to the People's Republic of China, the direction of its own metaverses is gradually being perceived by other countries. This applies, in particular, to the United Arab Emirates. The first beginnings in this direction are being made in Russia. The author of this work believes that a more dynamic development of the concept of metaverses will be observed in connection with the spread of quantum technologies, the functioning of which makes it possible to achieve the necessary level of power for the necessary calculations.
Thus, it can be concluded that the basis for the development of technological progress is, first of all, a human idea, which often has a fantasy and/or imaginative character. In this regard, humanity has a high share of responsibility associated with answering such a question: "how can a person not lose himself and preserve his individuality in the new world of technology under construction?".
The future of 2100 and what does the "black mirror" have to do with it?
In 2011, the American TV series "Black Mirror" was released. It is difficult to overestimate the popularity of this work all over the world (in particular, in Russia). It is worth noting that the plot of the series served as a kind of starting point for various studies by Russian and foreign scientists. The main idea reflected in the series boils down to one circumstance. In the future, humanity will depend on the use of various technologies, which can lead to negative consequences (the connection between the real and virtual worlds will be lost, human life will be based on the level of his social rating on the network, manipulation of human digital consciousness, etc.). The author of this work believes that with the advent of the first technologies, humanity has already become dependent from them. We are talking not only about the modern world, where, for sure, everyone cannot imagine their life without a smartphone with the ability to access the Internet, but also about earlier periods of human existence. For example, this applies to fixed telephones in the Soviet state, thanks to which it was possible to ensure the exchange of information. Turning to the 19th century, we can say that some degree of dependence on technology is justified by the creation of the world's first telegraph in 1816. Based on this, it can be reasonably assumed that in the future there will be no changes in reducing the level of human dependence on technology. On the contrary, it will only increase. Perhaps this is humanity's payment for the development of scientific and technological progress.
It should be borne in mind that dependence can be divided into two groups: positive and negative. All examples of positive dependence come down to a well-known postulate, which is that technologies are integrated into a person's life to help the latter perform any tasks (communication, knowledge acquisition, elimination of routine work, etc.). Negative dependence presupposes the onset of adverse consequences from "harmful" technologies (online casinos, online multi-user-games promoting terrorism and drug use, etc.). Therefore, it is necessary to develop positive technologies and combat harmful ones. At the same time, it should be noted that history knows cases when the state has set unreasonably high barriers to the spread of positive technologies. As an example, the law on the red flag (Locomotive Act 1861)[20], which the British government hindered the development of the automotive industry in the country.
Black Mirror 2100: what is it?
Today, you can find a variety of points of view regarding the future for a five-, ten-, twenty- and twenty-five-year period. No one can unequivocally assume how the world will change by the beginning of the next century. According to A.I. Ageev, the complexity of this process is explained by the low level of development of management decision-making systems that form the basis of forecasting[21]. The author takes the liberty to formulate some futurological views on the degree of technology development by the year 2100.
1. The disappearance of smartphones, tablets, personal computers and other tangible media. Today, the question of the possibility of physical synergy between technology and man is only gaining relevance. We are talking about embedding high-tech implants in the human body in the form of a microprocessor. It is very likely that by 2100 such mechanisms will become commonplace and completely replace material sources of information. It is assumed that every cell of the human body will be involved in the functioning of the implants, thereby forming a wide range of functionality. Through the use of neuroimplants, it will be possible to talk not only about paying for goods and/or services, but also more advanced options, namely:
1) tracking all health indicators;
2) photographing by blinking your eyes;
3) direct access to the metaverse (it is possible that the implementation of this process will be carried out by the power of thought);
4) using the built-in intelligent assistant that exists in the form of a hologram.
In this case, the key challenge for the implementation of this provision will be the level of protection and protection of personal data. It is very likely that jurisprudence will reach a new level of development, which will allow through the use of artificial intelligence technologies to provide full-fledged legal protection.
2. Transformation of the theory of the social contract of the emergence of the state. To date, there are a sufficient number of theories about the origin of the state. The most popular among them should be considered the theory of the social contract, which was most fully described by Thomas Hobbes in the famous work "Leviathan". Currently, due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies, scientists are expressing thoughts about the transformation of the traditional leviathan into a new form – digital. The consequence of this is the emergence of such a phenomenon as the digital leviathan[22]. This gives reason to believe that artificial intelligence is tightly integrated into the basis of public administration. Today we can observe how this process is carried out. Singapore with the smart City system is the undisputed leader in this direction. It is very likely that by the beginning of the next century, the current state of affairs in Singapore will become an outdated model even for third world countries. I would like to emphasize that artificial intelligence technologies will not replace the state, but will be the most optimal means of managing it. To implement such a model, it is necessary to ensure the digital security of the state. In other words, the phenomenon of digital sovereignty of the state will be at the forefront.
3. Innovative ways to use the metaverse. It was shown above that the doctrine expresses a variety of points of view about the scope of the concept of the metaverse in the near future. It is very likely that by the year 2100, the vast majority of social relations will arise and develop within the framework of the metaverses. At the same time, it is worth noting that the integration of metaverse technology can reach an extraterrestrial level. It is often possible to meet all sorts of hypotheses and statements that colonization of other planets and/or galaxies is possible in the near future. It is very likely that not everyone will be able to organize the procedure for their transfer to another planet or solar system. Both financial resources and the state of a person's general health can become obstacles. This one assumes that by the year 2100, the metaverse will be considered as a collection of many virtual worlds. Matthew Ball believes that the metaverse should be understood as a scalable and compatible network of 3D virtual worlds (emphasis mine), visualized in real time, which can be accessed synchronously and continuously by an almost unlimited number of users with an individual sense of presence and continuity of data such as personality, history, rights, objects, communications and payments[23]. The development of the space industry can make it possible to project the physical reality of other planets as accurately and individually as possible, which will allow a significant number of people to ensure their virtual presence in interstellar space.
Full immersion in the metaverse due to the high resolution graphics of VR equipment and tactile technologies can cause a person to lose touch with the real world. This will lead to serious psychological personality problems. In this regard, there may be a deeper and more significant problem of using metaverse technology. The fact is that the virtual world can gradually replace the physical world. In other words, a person will not need the real world when there is a fully customized virtual space. In this case, it would be more correct to say that a person will lose his individuality and turn into a slave.
Despite all the possible potential of the metaverse, it will be necessary to establish special rules for the use of virtual space in order to avoid the realization of the plot of the film "Lawn Mower" when a person fully wishes to move into the virtual world. The general regulation of future rules should be reduced, in particular, to the following points: limiting the time interval for the use of the metaverse (especially this provision applies to children), establishing rules of conduct in the exercise of rights and duties in conditions of being inside the metaverse, forming an ideology to counteract the extreme level of dependence.
Conclusion
It is possible that the ideas and thoughts reflected in this study about the future black mirror of 2100 will not be fully realized or will be realized before the designated deadline. The work reflects the author's somewhat subjective point of view as briefly as possible. At the same time, it is an indisputable and indisputable fact that in order to ensure technological progress, humanity will need to adapt to the new realities under construction. In this case, it would be advisable to mention the theory of Charles Darwin and Herbert Spencer, according to which the strongest survives, whose main skill is expressed in the fastest adaptation to constantly changing conditions. In this regard, I would like to end this work with the words of Yu.V. Sidelnikov: "Survival does not mean that intelligent beings in the universe need to conquer it. To survive means to purposefully contribute to the evolution of the universe, while creating a noosphere of the maximum possible size[24]."
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