Автор: ТАЗАЯН РОЗА ЛЕРНИКОВНА / TAZAYAN ROSA LERNIKOVNA
PREFACE
Today, there are active transformations in the field of international law, military-political, scientific-technical, cultural, ideological and other spheres. The critical consequences of these events were the unstable economic situation in a number of countries, provoked by the destabilization of global demand for energy resources, the structure of their consumption and other important financial categories. Day by day, media panic is gaining momentum throughout the globe. The reason for this global disorder is the attempts of external forces to activate terrorist and extremist elements, to destabilize the security system around the world. As a result, a lot of contradictions at the international level are becoming an increasingly clear threat and challenge to international organizations, the foundations and opportunities for fair membership in their composition are being undermined.
Such changes entail the need for systematic and, importantly, proactive forecasting of strategies and prospects for the development of international relations. Thus, as one of the forms of influence on world processes, it is necessary to single out the conduct of scientific, in this context, scientific and futurological research. All this will allow us to identify the main features of a promising system for ensuring international security and global stability not only in the current era, but also in the XXII century.
The presented work examines the prospects for the development of international relations in the next century. Attention is focused on the use of new diplomatic ways to solve global problems of mankind. In the course of scientific and futurological research, the analysis of the most likely directions of the development of international relations is carried out. Particular attention is paid to the issues of ensuring a fair dialogue of States in the international political space.
For the qualitative implementation of the key provisions of the work, the following goal was set – to study the prospects of the global world of the future, the prerequisites that determine the construction of a new architecture of international security and the interaction of political factors.
Based on the purpose of the study, the following stages of its implementation are determined:
1. Analysis of sources of information about the state of the international political space and the factors that determine it.
2. Identification of the most likely directions and prospects for the development of international relations in the short and long term.
3. Establishing the role of the Russian Federation in international politics from a futurological perspective.
The realization of the potential of this scientific project will make it possible to outline the most potential directions for the development of international relations in the blissful decades, and based on this, take effective methods in advance to resolve them and prevent escalation.
Tazayan Rosa Lernikovna,
student of the Rostov Institute (branch)
All-Russian State University of Justice
(RPA of the Ministry of Justice of Russia)"
INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NATIONS
As you know, the key international contradiction of the XXI century in the sphere of political relations was the structure of the world order, namely, the desire of a number of states for multipolarity, which became a natural result of the failure of the existing unipolar world order. After all, this model had nothing to do with democracy and equality of states in the international arena, basically assumed unilateral domination, suppression by economic, military and political means of any manifestation of disagreement. Despite significant pressure, destructive tendencies in the international arena, active attempts to isolate, in particular Russia, have had a diametrically opposite effect, indicating the possibility of returning to the path of democratic transformations, taking into account the interests of all nations, preserving national sovereignty and stability.
On the way of improving international relations, an important factor has always been the modernization of the foreign policy concept of each state of the Earth. The most optimal way to trace such flexible solutions is by the example of the Russian Federation.
Throughout its centuries-old history, Russia has been and is one of the most important actors in the international political space. Back in 2022, at that time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov predicted a move towards a multipolar model of the world order. On this occasion, it is worth recalling the reflections of Sergey Viktorovich: "Artificial attempts to restrain the development of the historical process can actually achieve their goal for several years, for some time. Now the West is frantically trying to restrain these processes by its reaction to the actions of the Russian Federation in defense of its legitimate interests, but life will take its course. I have no doubt here that the world will be multipolar"[1].
The course of historical events proved the prophetic nature of this saying and once again confirmed the significant role of Russia in the system of international relations. These trends have been traced throughout the XXI century, where the solution of the problems of European and international security began to rely on transparency and the inviolability of the aspirations of Russian political leaders and the entire people for the sake of ensuring universal prosperity and preserving fragile peace.
Thus, one of the key events affecting the entire world community in March 2011 was the conflict in Syria, which became the first signal of attempts to change international relations by force. The civil war, which originated at first, rapidly escalated into an armed conflict that affected neighboring states, and what is most terrible, activated international terrorist organizations, ensuring their partial legalization. The situation was aggravated by the fact that the opposition did not want to have anything to do with ensuring security and peace, as a result, dialogue was not possible. In the fall of 2015, Russia was forced to enter Syria in order to eliminate such a large-scale manifestation of evil as ISIS. Despite the systematic attempts of the West to "assist" in the settlement of the conflict, the Syrian state continued its purposeful activities to destroy the economic and ideological basis of terrorist cells. Russia's support gave Syria the opportunity to defend its statehood, thereby preventing threats against the countries of the European Union, but this did not prevent destructive processes that began to gain a threatening scale of terrorist activity.
The fight against terrorism has been and is a difficult task for the international community. After all, international agreements were not implemented properly or interpreted ambiguously. Terrorism and its manifestations remained a lever of influence on the international political space. The first quarter of the XXI century increasingly clearly showed Western "stamps" of the activities of terrorist organizations, their unprecedented transnational support [2, 9-10].
All this not only helped the development of ISIS as one of the most brutal organizations in its activities, but also established the prerequisites for the formation of a new generation of international terrorism. This situation, right up to its very end, brought with it constant tension in the Middle East. And only in 2019, Syria, thanks to the unprecedented support of the Russian state, began to gradually return to normal life, but decades passed before the sounds of gunshots and explosions became a phenomenon of the past, and not the present for the Syrian land.
The peacekeeping activity of the Russian Federation did not end there, already in 2020 the country took part in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The conflict itself, it should be recalled, was "complex", consisting of several stages lasting for more than 40 years, accompanied by constant outbreaks of "fire" and armed clashes. In addition to Russia, France (within the framework of the OSCE) and the United States took international part in regulating and resolving this military-political contradiction.
But still, Russia, being geographically closer to the conflict zone, took a direct part in its settlement. Geopolitical, cultural and economic differences have become a serious contradiction for the opposing sides in resolving the conflict.
Some agreements regarding Nagorno-Karabakh were reached in the fall of 2020, following another "outbreak" of weapons in the conflict zone [3]. But the discussion of ways out of the crisis did not end there. So, in 2022, during the CSTO summit, Vladimir Putin said: "We have already exchanged views with the Prime Minister briefly. During our bilateral meeting today... We hope that this will eventually lead to the conclusion of a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku" [4].
Despite these promising statements, bearing at first glance quite a favorable outcome for the states, the conflict that lasted for centuries required more radical solutions. Unfortunately, it has become impossible to get out of the conflict on equal terms and without weapons. Such international organizations as the CSTO, the CIS and the EEC failed to contribute to a diplomatic, and most importantly, a fair solution to the conflict.
The military-political differences and the confrontation over territorial integrity have gone beyond the countries participating in the conflict. In the international political space, the question arose about the survival and preservation of all Transcaucasian nations in places of traditional settlement. Protests around the world were accompanied by violence and "shots fired". Such a harsh reality has gripped not only the former Soviet republics, but also a number of European states. From year to year, confrontations covered new spheres of public relations, and greater efforts were required to prevent them.
The next harbinger of the collapse in international relations on the territory of Eastern Europe was the beginning of the spring of 2014 – the conflict on the territory directly bordering Russia, the south-east of Ukraine. The conflict was also multi-stage and was accompanied by fateful episodes.
The most recent event that set the point in resolving the conflict was the initiation of a special military operation by Russia in 2022 as a forced measure. Previously, a well–known political figure of that time, Vladimir Zhirinovsky: noted "This is the last peaceful new year. 2022 is the year of war!". This "prophecy", which later became a reality, shook the public and the world information space. The consequences of the armed confrontation were widespread militarization. For the first time during the conflict, residents of the United States and the European Union were truly afraid of the events taking place in the military-political space.
The conflict, which is not at all easy for Russia and the leading powers, came to a logical conclusion only in the winter of 2024. Over the past 2 years, the growing military power of the country has become a guarantor of security and strategic stability throughout the world. The sole superiority of the United States in the international arena and unipolarity were "erased into ashes" by the appearance of the latest strategic weapons systems of the Russian Federation.
Finally, stability has arrived in the global political and legal space. However, the United States of America could not come to terms with the destruction of the "pro-American" concept, the empire of the American dollar, for a long time. The desperate attempts of the United States to regain dominance on the world stage were manifested in attempts to destabilize the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2024.
Attempts to revise the existing approaches in the third decade of the XXI century were unsuccessful, since the policy of fair dialogue between countries was not relevant, such international organizations as NATO and the Council of Europe in their activities completely contradicted the generally recognized principles of international law. A bold step in the formation of stable international relations, namely the development of military-strategic, economic, scientific-technical and other areas, was the creation in 2045 of the International Union of Nations (International Union of Nations).
The principle of sovereign equality of nations (States) became the basis for the creation and further activity of such an international platform for equal dialogue. The new body was formed as a confederation consisting of two chambers, one of which was the representatives of each state elected proportionally based on population, territory and economic indicators; the second chamber was the representation of each subject of the state, at the time of the creation of the Union.
The unification into a confederation was conditioned by the need to create a new effective solution to the global problems of humanity on the basis of equality and openness. The participating nations carried out their international activities within the framework of the IUN Charter signed by them and subsequently ratified. The text of the universal source of international law was unanimously approved by all peoples during the first international electronic voting. Following the progressive development of international relations, the provisions of the Charter were improved, but taking into account the previously existing goals and principles.
At the moment, all the states of the world are members of the organization, which, after the unification of a number of countries, make up only 108 participants. The main way to resolve disputes in the ICN was a Peaceful solution, i.e. negotiations accompanied and supported by the entire population of the Earth, represented by representatives of the participating States of the organization. In matters of territorial administration, the participants were independent, which allowed them to maintain respect for the culture of the peoples of the MSN to this day. Due to the trends of unification of the state, as well as the wide possibilities of electronic voting in real time, the openness of borders, the territorial factor has lost its prevailing importance.
In addition, on July 12, 2047, an important international act was adopted, namely the International Charter entitled "Elimination of International terrorism and extremism". The protocol of voting on the document noted the absolute support and interest of the participating nations in this issue. The provisions of the Charter categorically condemn terrorism in all its manifestations, and also point to the need for coordinated decisions and prompt actions of the international organization in the fight against such a threat.
Since 2045, December 1 has been systematically celebrated as the Day of the MSN. This year marks the 55th anniversary of the entry into force of its Charter. During the period of its activity and membership in it of the leading leaders-states in the economic, scientific, technical, innovative and other spheres, huge successes have been achieved in solving global problems of mankind.
In one of the last meetings of the organization, its Secretary General noted: "A few decades ago, we could not have imagined such a successful state of affairs in the field of international political and legal architecture. The unity of the countries of our Union is making progress year after year. We are pleased to announce that after decades of the existence of our organization, many problems of an international scale have been eliminated, namely energy supply, a number of environmental problems and the most important thing is the preservation of peace on Earth. Today, I declare with confidence and pride that the course we chose 55 years ago has shown the best results and has become a real breakthrough in the history of international relations."
Today, the international community remembers with pride and honor the historical path it has passed. It would seem that a couple of decades ago, the population of the Earth could only imagine in the long term such a successful state of affairs in the field of diplomatic cooperation. Military-political conflicts, economic crises and other difficult events for the globe have remained forever in the history of civilization. The creation of the International Union of Nations has "breathed life" into the bright future of the global world.
The modern political and legal architecture has reached its maturity, thanks to a competent and authoritative international community. The rich world history has shown us a number of mistakes and contradictions, the resolution of which previously could only be a figment of human imagination. We thank our ancestors for all their efforts in shaping the current world order. The platforms and models of participation in international relations that exist today entrust us, the people of the XXII century, with confidence in the security and well-being of future generations.
Dynamically changing social relations will always be a motivation for achievements in political, legal, social, economic and other fields. Life and the world in tens or even hundreds of years remain unknown to us until the end, but it is worth remembering that scientific analysis and real steps to maintain a stable and just world order will lead us to the best future.
LIST OF SOURCES USED
1. "A multipolar world. Russia on a new turn of world history": online lecture. URL: https://ruskline.ru (date of application: 17.11.2022).
2. White R.J. Terrorism and homeland security. – Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 2006. – 566 p.
3. Transcript of the address of the President of the Russian Federation on November 10, 2020 URL: http://prezident.org (accessed: 11/23/2022).
4. What Zhirinovsky predicted for Russia, Ukraine and the whole world until 2036. URL: https://politinform.su (accessed: 11/28/2022).