Автор: АЛЕКПЕРОВА АДЕЛИНА КАМАЛОВНА / ALEKPEROVA ADELINA KAMALOVNA
Introduction
Modern trends related to technological and climatic changes have an impact on the further economic development of countries, as well as on the person himself. In the context of global challenges, the future of the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as many countries of the world, will depend on how the country will use the opportunities associated with technological, environmental, demographic and other global trends that have a significant impact on the future of a person. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing welfare economy in order to understand the existing trends, the scale of problems and prospects for human development, which must be taken into account when reorienting the Kyrgyz Republic to progressive, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The presented research is based on a desk study, which includes the study of all available materials related to the research topic, including current regulatory legal acts and draft laws of the Kyrgyz Republic, reports of international organizations, media materials, collection and processing of statistical information from official sources (NSC, NBKR, departmental statistics, etc.), as well as information received during meetings with interested parties. The paper considers: the dynamics of indicators of the well-being of citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2009-2022; current regulatory legal acts. This study reflects the possible trajectories of the impact of global challenges on the well-being of the citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic, taking into account its current features. The analysis carried out and the recommendations formulated will be useful for the development of a national strategy and action plan to improve the welfare of citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic. According to the author, it is vitally important for the countries of the post-Soviet space to simultaneously find independent and nationally oriented directions and approaches to solving these problems, necessarily using the achievements of the institutional framework, the experience of the world community, as well as the advantages of regional integration.
The main part
A person of the future in the context of the development of modern trends of digitalization, environmentalization faces huge obstacles, which requires constant perfection in personal and professional growth. A person in the future will intersect very closely with the welfare economy. The welfare economy is an economy characterized by mutually reinforcing relationships between society, the economy and the environment. By placing a person at the center of development, it ensures equal rights and opportunities for all people, stability and sustainability, as well as access to natural capital for present and future generations. People in the welfare economy bear and fully assume responsibility for creating and supporting governance structures that ensure peaceful coexistence, harmonious relations between society and nature, as well as healthy and sustainable communities. The key parameters for measuring the well-being of the economy should include, as proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the standards of living of New Zealand, several levels: individual well-being and collective current well-being.
Individual well-being includes the following parameters:
Health (life expectancy, birth rate, number of chronic diseases per person, number of malnourished, mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases);
Housing (area per person, percentage of households with clean water, area of heated housing per capita);
Income and wealth (per capita income, the ratio of per capita income to per capita income or to the subsistence minimum or consumer basket);
Environmental quality (composite - air quality index, water quality index, landscaping area per capita in cities, number of open (or unregistered) landfills around the city, soil quality index, biodiversity index, etc.);
Job and job quality (employment level, subjective job satisfaction surveys);
Work-life balance (time fund allocation for different groups, surveys);
Knowledge and skills (level of education, level of professional development of teachers, % of the workforce employed in knowledge-intensive industries in the country and abroad);
Social connections (networking, average family and clan size, surveys on community participation at different levels);
Civic obligations (paid and unpaid forms of political activity, environmental protection, public and national services, such as the number of people working for NGOs, voter turnout);
Cultural opportunities and affiliation (level and level of proficiency in the local language, other languages, the number of cultural holidays celebrated at the local and national levels);
Subjective well-being (surveys).
Collective well-being includes the following parameters:
Institutions and governance;
Wealth/resources for future well-being.
Safety (number of crimes per person per year, deaths from natural disasters, deaths and injuries in road accidents);
Families and households (number of marriages, number of divorces);
Civil society (level of participation in volunteer work, local affairs, elections);
Firms and markets (number of SMEs and % of GDP, diversification of production and services in the country);
Central and local authorities (the likelihood of an intra-state conflict and the overall level of efficiency and risk of the country, the level of corruption, the speed of implementation of development plans or corruption index, citizen confidence surveys);
International relations (% of trade of GDP, % of migration and labor exchange, number of cooperation agreements, cooperation/conflict relations).
Natural capital (the sum of total land, water, mineral resources, protected areas, indicators of biodiversity, perhaps even climate as a resource);
Economic (financial and physical capital, buildings, bridges, dams, etc.);
Human capital (volunteering after retirement age, the number of people with higher education, doctors of sciences, poets, sports stars, musicians, the number of inventions or patents per capita, the number of local writers, etc.);
Social capital (surveys, which assess social connections, social networks and social support).
There are the following international scenarios for the future.
The International Futures platform (International Scenarios of the Future, SMEs) was used by the MAPS mission as a method for determining the results of the development of measures proposed as opportunities for accelerated response of SDG policies. MSB is a large—scale long-term integrated global modeling system.
MSB is a long-term modeling system consisting of many interconnected submodels, each of which represents different dimensions of development. The model was developed and is managed by the Purdy Center of the University of Denver. The overall goal of the SME is to serve as a tool for analyzing the long-term future for a particular country, region and world in various fields. Integration, Acceleration and Political Support (MAPS) is a United Nations system-wide initiative aimed at mobilizing and using the experience and comparative advantages of the United Nations system to promote sustainable, human-centered and rights-based development. The MAPS report on Kyrgyzstan 's progress towards the SDGs was prepared in 2019 .
For the first time, the ethnonym and state "Kyrgyz" was mentioned in 201 BC in the list of names of tribes and possessions conquered by the Hunnic ruler Mode. According to written information, Kyrgyz statehood originated on the Yenisei fifteen hundred years ago. The Kyrgyz Republic is a small State with limited economic and natural potential, as well as lack of access to the sea and the lowest GNI per capita in the region. The socio-economic policy of the Kyrgyz Republic is aimed at the formation and strengthening of economic potential in accordance with the main strategic guidelines and objectives laid down in the National Development Strategy of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018-2040.
There are 4 main current political documents that contain references to the welfare of citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic:
The National Development Strategy (NSR) of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018-2040; the National Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2026 (NPR 2026); the Concept of the green economy in the Kyrgyz Republic "Kyrgyzstan – the country of the green economy", approved in 2018, and the Program of the "green" economy in the Kyrgyz Republic for 2019-2023, accompanied by an Action Plan Programs for the development of the "green" economy in the Kyrgyz Republic for 2019-2023.
The National Development Strategy (NSR) of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018-2040 states that "the quality and standard of living, human rights and obligations are at the center of state policy. The strategy is primarily aimed at creating an environment for human development, unlocking the potential of everyone who lives in our country, ensuring their well-being."
Table 1. Dynamics of the main economic indicators, 2009-2021
Indicators |
2009 |
2012 |
2015 |
2021 |
GDP and GNI | ||||
GDP at current prices, billion som |
201,2 |
310,5 |
430,5 |
569,4 |
Real GDP growth, % compared to the base year (2009) |
- |
5,3 |
26,2 |
43,1 |
GNI per capita, US dollars |
860 |
1040 |
1180 |
1220 |
Inflation and exchange rate | ||||
CPI growth, % compared to the base year (2009) |
- |
35,2 |
60,7 |
74,7 |
Nominal exchange rate average for the period, SOM/US dollar |
42,92 |
47,00 |
64,48 |
68,84 |
Budget revenues and expenditures | ||||
Budget revenues in current prices, billion soms |
55,7 |
87,0 |
128,4 |
151,6 |
Budget revenues, % of GDP |
27,7 |
28,0 |
29,8 |
26,6 |
Budget expenditures in current prices, billion soms |
58,6 |
107,2 |
134,6 |
157,8 |
Budget expenditures, % of GDP |
29,1 |
34,5 |
31,3 |
27,7 |
Government debt at current prices, million SOMS |
117,7 |
156,7 |
289,2 |
311,8 |
External public debt, % of GDP |
58,5 |
50,5 |
67,2 |
54,8 |
Foreign economic sector | ||||
Money transfers of individuals carried out through money transfer systems, inflow, billion US dollars |
0,97 |
2,02 |
1,68 |
2,69 |
Inflow of foreign direct investment, million US dollars |
660,9 |
590,7 |
1 573,2 |
851,7 |
Population and poverty | ||||
Population, total, million people |
5,4 |
5,6 |
5,9 |
6,8 |
Population growth, in% compared to the base year (2009) |
- |
2,8 |
9,2 |
15,9 |
Percentage of the population with incomes below the poverty line, % of the population |
31,7 |
38 |
32,1 |
42,4 |
Sources: NSK KR, NBKR, WB
During the period under review, the Kyrgyz Republic emerged from the status of a low-income country and entered the group of low-middle-income countries according to the World Bank classification. The pandemic has leveled everything, SDG 2 – poverty eradication will not be achieved in the Kyrgyz Republic, including, although the proportion of the population with incomes below the poverty line in 2019 was 22%, currently 42.4%. The long-term prospects of the Kyrgyz economy are extremely uncertain, although in recent years it has demonstrated great stability. Being a small, highly liberalized economy, it is subject to political and economic crises occurring outside its borders, and needs to maintain strong business relations with Russia, China and other Central Asian countries. The recent accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the EAEU has linked it even more closely with the Russian economy. People of the future are seen as free, successful citizens living according to the principles of honesty, justice, responsibility for themselves, their family and the country.
The Kyrgyz Republic is a labor–surplus region with a fairly young population, with an average age of 27 years. The structure of labor resources is changing, the share of economically inactive population among the working-age population is growing. Employment and unemployment rates are falling. In all age groups, the employment rate among men is higher than among women. A fifth of young people do not work, do not study and do not undergo vocational training; the probability of getting into this group for women is twice as high as for men. The share of people employed in agriculture tends to decrease. Remote employment is growing. In some sectors of the economy, there is a tendency for labor productivity to fall. According to the UN forecast, by 2030 the population of the Kyrgyz Republic will be 7.3 million people, by 2035 – 7.7 million people. The population of the country will age demographically at the age of 65 will be more than 7%. By 2050, the age structure will enter the stage of demographic maturity, the share of the elderly will be 20%, now 8%. Life expectancy will increase to 73 years for men and 80.2 years for women, currently 67.9 and 76.1, respectively. The number of children will decrease from 37% to 30% of the total population by 2050. In 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.9 children per woman aged 15-49 years (in 2019 – 3.3 children). The working-age population will increase significantly: from 3.8 million (2020) to 4.7-4.8 million (2035), i.e. by 1 million people.
Conclusion
In the conditions of modern global challenges, the tasks facing the state to improve the well-being of citizens are becoming significantly more complicated, since it is necessary to take preventive measures today to prevent the growth of tension in the labor market associated with digitalization, migration and climate change, for which it is necessary to systematically engage in the creation of decent jobs and the development of an education system with a focus on learning in throughout life, reducing the time between the emergence of the need for workers and their training, advanced training with an emphasis on multitasking, etc. A person of the future is a person whose activities do not undermine the development of future generations. A person of the future is a person with a completely different ideology, a fundamentally different attitude to the complex of decision–making at different levels, and taking into account the national characteristics of an individual state. The key role is to change not only the person himself, but also the whole world. The Kyrgyz people are a nomadic people with preserved cultural values, with a more careful attitude to nature, because most of the population lives in a mountainous area in harmony with nature. Citizens are an association of people with different cultural, ethnic, religious traditions through the desire to build a successful and developed state.
There are no universal recipes for well-being, but a citizen of the Kyrgyz Republic will live in a just society where spiritual values are based on the history, culture and traditions of the Kyrgyz people.
A person will be accountable to society for his actions, and society will reject violations of accepted rules, violence and discrimination. The lifestyle of a person focused on the values of development, education, and health will be widely used as a way of investing in their future.
For every citizen of Kyrgyzstan, the family will become a cementing element of spirituality, education, upbringing, co-organization of human life and the formation of a healthy lifestyle.
A person of the future is a person with a changed worldview, with a special ideology, adapted to climate change and the intensive development of technology.
List of used literature
1. Dubashov, B., A. Kruse and S. Ismailakhunova (2015), Kyrgyz Republic - Biannual economic update: resilience amid turbulence - special focus: meeting the jobs challenge, WorldBank, Washington DC.
2. ADB (2014), The Kyrgyz Republic: Strategic Assessment of the Economy, Asian Development Bank, Manila, http://, https://www.adb.org/publications/kyrgyz-republic-strategicassessment-economy.
3. https://lsfdashboard.treasury.govt.nz/wellbeing/
4. http://cbd.minjust.gov.kg/act/view/ru-ru/430700
5. http://cbd.minjust.gov.kg/act/view/ru-ru/83126
6. https://mineconom.gov.kg/ru/direct/302/335
7. http://www.stat.kg/ru/nsur / p. 5, p. 6.
8. https://kyrgyzstan.un.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/MAPS%20Report_ENG_Final_15M