After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian currency underwent a sharp devaluation, losing almost 33% of its value against the Mexican currency,1 and almost 60% against the euro and the dollar.2 And in the third quarter of 2022, Russia's GDP decreased by 4.4%3 due to sanctions imposed by Western countries.
In such a scenario, it is important to ask the following questions: do Western sanctions really affect the Russian economy? What does the data say about this? Who are the sanctions really affecting? And what is the future of the Russian economy in 2100?
The object of Western sanctions
According to the EU countries, "the sanctions are aimed at increasing the price of war for the Russian regime,"4 and according to the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "the EU sanctions were approved unanimously by the Council's decision in the field of the "Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union", mandatory in all its elements for all member states."5
However, the EU countries cannot fully agree on some sanctions, for example, on setting the maximum price per barrel of oil. Germany, the locomotive of Europe, argued that this could have the opposite effect, but on the part of the United States and other countries, such as Poland,6 they are seeking to establish this sanction against Russia.
Problems between sanctions and facts
The United States planned that Russia's GDP reduction due to sanctions would be "between 10-15% by the end of 2022, which is more than double the reduction that Russia experienced after the 1998 financial crisis."7
However, until November 30, 2022, the reduction was only 4.4%. And not only these data are impressive! According to the BBC news network, the Russian currency was the most efficient currency in the world, despite the sanctions. Currently, the value of the ruble against currencies such as the euro, dollar or Mexican peso has increased significantly by almost 25% compared to the value that this currency had at the time of the outbreak of the war8.
This is largely due to the rapid decisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Decisions to block transactions on the Russian stock market, the ban on the use of dollars and euros within the country and their exchange for local currency led to the protection of the rouble.9 And the intention of the Russian government to start selling its oil in rubles to the European Union and other countries caused a strong strengthening of the Russian ruble.
Falling oil sales?
Western sanctions were expected to deal a heavy blow to the strongest pillar of the Russian economy: the oil and gas market.
Despite this intention, sales of black gold and gas not only did not decrease, but also significantly increased in price. According to Bloomberg Economics, if Russia's major customers, including the European Union, continue to buy energy from it, the country will earn about 292 billion euros this year, which is a third more than last year10.
However, this measure affected the EU countries. It causes a huge increase in prices due to purchases of oil from other countries, the cost of which increases significantly.
Inflation in Russia versus the world
It was expected that inflation in Russia would be a trigger to slow down the Russian government and abandon the idea of a special military operation in Ukraine. But if it wasn't a surprise, it wouldn't have happened either.
While in Russia, annual inflation reached only 12.63%11 in October, in countries such as the UK, annual inflation is 10.1%. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have reached an annual inflation rate above 20%12, and overall inflation in the European area reached 10% in September 13. This is a huge failure, given that the sanctions were directed against the government and the military industry, and not against the Europeans themselves.
Who will the sanctions really affect?
It is not necessary to know who benefits from the sanctions imposed on the Russian government. But it is necessary to make it clear that the sanctions imposed by Western countries affect the civilian population, both in Russia and in Europe and around the world, through rising prices for oil, grains, oils and fertilizers and the lack of fuel to generate electricity needed to heat homes in winter.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, various political leaders have retaliated against people of Russian nationality, forcing them to leave the country in special cases and causing acts of discrimination based on nationality.
The future of the Russian economy until 2024
After the data from the past and present have been analyzed, it's time to make a forecast for the future of the Russian economy. It is necessary to analyze various sources of information that try to be neutral.
In connection with the current conflict between Russia and its neighbor, various media and analysts draw biased conclusions to support the propaganda of war in favor of Western countries. However, the reality is that, according to the Bank of Russia, the economy is expected to shrink by 3.5% in the gross domestic product of the country in 2022, and up to 4% in 2023. At the same time, inflation will be 13% and 7% per year. year respectively.14
Inflation causes prices to rise due to a decrease in the purchasing power of the currency. This means that food, basic goods or services are becoming more and more valuable for residents of Russia, and they do not have much money left to buy other types of goods. This leads to the fact that demand begins to decline, and with it the economy.
The vision for 2023 and 2024 is not very encouraging, but there is good news.
Vision of the Russian Economy for 2100: International relations and recovery
Although the next few years are not very motivating, the truth is that by 2026 Russia is expected to recover gross domestic product and lower inflation.
In addition, the author's vision reflects Russia in 2100 as a potential economic ally in the largest and most important market in the world: the hydrocarbon market.
Many American companies have left a niche in the market. Since the beginning of the conflict with Ukraine, more than 1,000 companies have left the country or ceased their activities.15 But some of these companies, such as McDonald's, have already been reopened to the Russian population under Russian owners and under a different name: "Delicious and period."16 And while it is true that many of the companies that have closed will not be able to reopen, the vision of the Russian economy in 2100 becomes better if you know that companies are passing into the hands of national owners or foreign persons who want to do business and attract capital and investment to the country within a few months or weeks.
Finally, and most importantly, Russia has several strong allies around the world, including China, Iran, Brazil, India, South Africa, Venezuela, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. In addition, Russia is a member of OPEC+, the organization of petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia. All this is due to the fact that Russia is one of the countries with the highest oil exports in the world.
All this, together with many factors of cooperation in technological issues, such as an alternative payment system with China17 or space cooperation agreements with Mexico,18 give great confidence that the vision of the Russian economy will grow, strengthen and strengthen again.
It is expected that by 2100 Russia will not only properly cope with Western sanctions, but also establish international relations with several Latin American countries, develop its own space technologies and remain one of the largest economic powers with a strong international presence.

Bibliography
1 https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11692238/03/22/El-rublo-esta-al-borde-de-recuperar-todo-el-valor-que-perdio-tras-la-invasion-de-Ucrania.html
2 https://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/2022-04-07/el-rublo-borra-las-perdidas-de-la-guerra-y-se-acerca-a-sus-maximos-en-dos-meses_3405189/
3 https://www.forbes.com.mx/rusia-entra-en-recesion-tras-contraerse-su-pib-un-4-4-en-3t/
4 https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/es/fichas-de-paises/ucrania/situacion-en-ucrania-que-hace/article/guerra-en-ucrania-sanciones-adoptadas-contra-rusia-y-bielorrusia
5 https://www.exteriores.gob.es/es/PoliticaExterior/Paginas/SancionesInternacionales.aspx
6 https://es.euronews.com/next/2022/12/02/ucrania-crisis-petroleo-ue
7 https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-61474437
8 https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-61637673
9 https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20220309/banco-central-rusia-limita-retirada-divisas/2305920.shtml
10 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-02/ue-acuerda-tope-de-precio-us-60-para-exportaciones-de-crudo-ruso
11 https://www.statbureau.org/es/russia/inflation
12 https://es.euronews.com/next/2022/08/19/inflacion-record-que-paises-de-europa-se-estan-viendo-mas-afectados-por-la-subida-de-los-p
13 https://www.dw.com/es/la-inflaci%C3%B3n-en-la-eurozona-alcanza-el-10-en-septiembre-la-mayor-desde-la-creaci%C3%B3n-del-euro/a-63293970
14 https://cbr.ru/about_br/publ/ondkp/on_2023_2025/
15 https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/05/24/grandes-empresas-rusia-guerra-orix/
16 https://www.elperiodico.com/es/cata-mayor/actualidad-gastronomica/20220614/mcdonalds-reabre-rusia-nuevo-nombre-vkusno-i-tochka-delicioso-y-punto-13836624
17 https://www.baenegocios.com/mundo/Rusia-y-China-planean-un-sistema-de-pago-alternativo-al-SWIFT-20221129-0026.html
18 https://www.gob.mx/sre/documentos/informacion-sobre-el-acuerdo-entre-mexico-y-rusia-en-materia-espacia