Автор: АЛЕШИНА АНАСТАСИЯ ЕВГЕНЬЕВНА / ALESHINA ANASTASIA EVGENEVNA
Introduction
Analyzing the assessment of the current state of social development within the framework of the research direction I have chosen, I can conclude that the idea of social changeability, dynamism and certain features characterizing it is becoming more and more relevant in the 21st century. It is impossible to express unambiguously about all the social processes of our time and give them an individual assessment, but it is possible to predict and consider the hierarchical structuring of the main defining moments of the next step of the modern, future generation. Considering the individual directions of the chosen topic, I notice that the definition of change makes sense only when it has features of a relatively stable object that is in a certain state. But with such a course of events, it is always possible to exclude the fact that this process is also a certain state that is located and preserved in society.
Any changes in society have always attracted the attention of sociologists, political scientists, historians and even us, ordinary average people who live in this developing global world. [1] Modern society is a unique product of the history of human development, significantly different from the well-known societies of the past. Its emergence is dictated by the whole logic of human development and originates in the second half of the twentieth century, determined by the processes of globalization and integration of individual societies into the world community. Even at the beginning of the twentieth century, philosophers interested in sociology, considering humanity, talk about local civilizations – isolated from each other and relatively independent entities, each of which goes through its own life cycle obeying a certain logic. The impacts of these civilizations with each other are either insignificant or do not exceed the impact of other natural and social factors in their influence. But at the same time, paying attention to the new post-industrial society and the rapidly developing technological and IT processes, I can say for sure that if we have already embarked on the path of global technology development and, possibly, a new cyber sphere, we will definitely not turn away from it in the next hundred years (taking into account social changes in 2022).
Within the framework of modern social society, the main problems of humanity are widely known to all, which can be solved by coming to a world unification that can change the course of upcoming events. For clarity, I propose to recall and pay attention to the particularly important changing foundations of society:
So today the main social problems include:
• demographic problem;
• food problem;
• the problem of a low standard of living;
• health problem;
• social relations of individuals;
• social conditions.
But after all, if we think more spatially, then we cannot even imagine how great the modern realities are in a developing society. One thing I can say for sure, we are developing in the field of a huge computer standard, beyond which it will not be possible to go out and return to previously established social customs, including.
Now in the 21st century, society is largely characterized by high rates of growth of the world's population, dragging along a number of other global problems. [1] The largest population growth occurs in underdeveloped countries that do not have the necessary resources to provide for their population, which provokes hunger, poverty, poor quality of medical care or (in the worst case) its absence. At the same time, due to the redistribution of resources in Western countries, there is an overabundance of the same food products that are not consumed and disposed of.
Modern society has two main features: firstly, it is post-Soviet, since it was born as a result of the collapse of the system and the collapse of the USSR, and secondly, it is a transforming society experiencing a period of qualitative change in its social characteristics, and therefore the foundations of the construction and interaction of all its components.
Civil society structures are being formed: political parties, social movements, associations, foundations, various types of independent non-profit organizations and new ideas for the development of a common future. Although they have not yet had a serious impact on the life of society, their number is increasing, the diversity of self-organizing associations of citizens is growing, the results of their activities are becoming more visible.
The purpose of the author of the research work is to present to the modern generation and formulate a forecast of the evolution of society in all its interacting areas for the period of 2100, taking into account the data of the 21st century, and on its basis to lead and promote a new step of society in its development, considering the process of economic, political and cultural activity. In the work , the author solves the following tasks:
• forecasting the dynamics of changes in the main characteristics of social relations of individual groups, individuals, organizations and communities
• focus on the implementation of new social statuses and social roles
• concentrating the distribution of benefits in the society of the future
• solving the problem of ensuring the safety of life, social mobility, social conditions within the new time
• development and possible emergence of new social institutions and infrastructure in the global sense
• patterns of social development in the future cyberspace
• new concepts: cyberindustrial society of the future, cybertronics, Economically sovereign positions, Economically interconnected parallels, Virtual Reality Institute, Cybernetics Institute, Human Institute, Vilay
Today, when the world is faced with a choice between further development in the information space or withdrawal and immersion in universal history, the society will willy-nilly come to the fidelity of the first, more interesting approach. Large-scale domestic and foreign policy and social tasks, diluted by the community and interaction of the cultures of the world, a comprehensive study of not the most unambiguous pages of the past, which is still in demand, will be imposed on the society of the future.
As a consequence of such hypotheses, I can turn to a single scientific novelty formed in the course of my reasoning. Scientific hypothesis: The author assumes that in 2100 social development will reach its peak, and the emerging society today will be called not the "post-industrial era", but the "cyberindustrial space", the truth of which is embedded in the initial prefix. This transformation and the complication of the global worldview will reveal the scientific novelty in the author's work.
Social relations of individuals, groups, organizations and communities in the process of their economic, political, and cultural activities
[2] The statements of the English philosopher, the founder of subjective idealism, George Berkeley, that the connection between ideas does not involve the relation of cause and action, but only marks or icons and things signified, predetermined a negative attitude to any method of cognition, to scientific research in general, including social. Such agnosticism is the most important distinguishing feature of modern subjective idealism.
Based on this method, it is possible to judge the further progressive impact of subjective idealism on society. To begin with, I suggest paying attention to the very concept of social relations:
Social relations are a huge global system of various stable relationships that arise between individuals, their groups, organizations and communities in the process of their economic, political, cultural and other activities, including the realization of their social statuses and social roles.
[3] Reflecting on how sociology can contribute to the development of production, because it was basically a real customer for applied sociological research, practical sociologists came to the only possible conclusion. For practice, it turns out to be interesting not only a person as a production and social subject, but a system of relations between people. The latter turned out to be such a revelation that it received the status of a separate scientific sociological direction. We are talking about industrial, and later social relations.
So to imagine the future of social development in the field of social relations of individuals, groups and others turns out quite significantly and predictably. It is impossible not to reduce the relations of the next generation to a commonality without turning to modern technologies. Almost every published or published article of scientific progress has two or three articles containing statistical data in the field of technology and information. I believe that the social relations of the future in any sphere of human activity will be based, because even now there is no way to do without it, on visual computer programs as a means of uniting groups of society and moving it forward. But at the same time, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of the emergence of new types of social relations, because the interests of individuals in various fields of activity are gaining a rapid pace.
Culture. So, in my opinion, in the future of 2100, it is quite possible that new directions in politics, economics and culture will appear. Paying attention, in particular, to culture, I ask you to note that culture, although it is the eternal heritage of peoples, but every day, regardless of current events, continues to be updated. We literally notice the emergence of new genres of art, borrowing in language and many others, which certainly affects the emergence of new types of social relations. I can assume that in the near future, from an artist creating with a brush, an artist will turn into a virtual creative space in which people will be able to reproduce great works on a 3D screen or platform. This method will make it possible to realize many hidden opportunities of individuals and pay attention to the emergence of new social trends. For example, people from different parts of the world will have the opportunity to create a cultural global heritage through a single virtual space, making adjustments at a distance, that is, on the common canvas of the object, they realize the opportunity to realize a new social product.
But there are also concerns about this theory. I want to highlight perhaps the most important thing – we will find ourselves on the verge of uniting cultures, which may lead to the disappearance of individual cultural values. It will be possible to avoid this by predicting events in advance and tracing the trend of development of this direction. It is more realistic to attract people to a single social problem through a common subject than to appeal to individuals individually.
Having observed the social trend of the past years, I can say for sure that two directions of values are being realized in modern society:
1. A certain concept of global understanding, consistent with which, the conclusion is that social action is explained through a clear interpretation of individual motives and interests of people.
2. "Dynamism of ideals" - the so-called abstract and random ideas and theories of constructions of the historical process.
Economy. In terms of the economic activity of the future under consideration, there are a lot of ideas about the formation of social relations in this area. Economics is, first of all, a planned holistic analysis and forecast of subsequent trends in the global market of the entire economic space; connections of all market corporations for the unified development of the monetary process. But it is still worth understanding that economic inequality will not go away, but will continue to keep up with the times, because where there is progress, there will always be manifestations of regression. Thus, I come back to the conclusion that the differences between social stratification and class division of society are and will remain the main economic obstacle.… So is it possible to "overcome" this nonsense? In my opinion, it is quite possible, only for this it should take at least a hundred years. We don't think much about the social relations of outsider groups of people right now, paying attention to our corporation. But if we still manage to develop global intelligence and comparative analysis, then most likely we will come to the point that we will be able to break out of the class division, while conditionally having the border of the highest layers, both medium and small, as a joint association.
Consequently, the economic relations of 2100 can acquire two directions:
1. Economically sovereign positions
2. Economically interconnected parallels
The first theory is based on the fact that in the future highly developed countries will either support the economy of their country, or they will unite in cooperatives of highly developed and lagging countries. Thus, economic relations will simply split into two warring camps, which is quite likely with the current outcome of events. The second theory, more optimistic, says that countries will interact with each other and support the economy of global economic relations. But these factors relate to the formation of the global economy and reflect a wide range of economic interests of different social groups, and not a certain category of a corporation of people, for example small firms, because they will change depending on the requirements of the future.
Politics. When touching on the political space of the future, considering social relations in it, there will be slight doubts about the correctness of the forecast given, because politics is the most unpredictable environment of the global world. But one way or another, this sphere of social relations will be similarly affected by changes. First of all, it will concern the problem of preserving the strength of already formed political relations. In the mutual strategy, the countries will have more confidence in the future. Social relations in the process of political activity, in my opinion, will have uncertainty. How will this affect an individual, a group, an organization? I believe that there will be significant changes in this area, especially speaking about the current time, the result of which is quite difficult for us to judge for sure. But I can definitely say that in my opinion, social relations in the political environment will look something like this: each country, depending on the progression of IT technologies, will open a new step into the global policy of interests, that is, relations between countries will develop into a policy of unity against a common problem. It will not be possible to avoid this. The predominance of the highest value – the protection of one's own sovereignty - will be the dominant force of the year 2100. Every country will face the problem of divergence of ideologies, as cyber innovations will arise, which in any case will arouse great interest among many world organizations.
Consequently, social relations in the process of political activity will face a common problem or enemy, for the solution it will be necessary to resort to a single agreement of countries, otherwise global crises and political instability will arise. But first of all, our future belongs to the multipolar world order.
A multipolar world is an international configuration in which the world is divided into spheres of influence between great powers, while none of the existing centers of power is able to independently impose its will in someone else's sphere of influence without creating a broad coalition of forces. As a rule, all this indicates a long-term coalition disagreement over the redistribution of spheres of influence.
Implementation of social statuses and social roles
First you need to remember these two concepts and consider social statuses and roles for the period of the 21st century. So, in my opinion, social status is a social position occupied by an individual or a social group in society, which is determined in accordance with specific social characteristics acting as economic, national, age and other characteristics. A social role is a set of actions that a person performs in a society of a certain sphere and to which this status is assigned. A person must fulfill certain material values in the social system and this is a well-known fact.
I believe that very soon, not to mention the future of 2100, many social statuses may, quite obviously, disappear. What is the reason for this? Firstly, with the widespread development of information technology and robotics. Even now, in our familiar society, it is not new for us to look at robots and new laptops or phones, televisions, which can easily find the necessary information for us at any time and upon our request. So what will prevent this from developing in the future – nothing. But now one of the most difficult problems of society arises – the question of the competent use and creation of this technique. Perhaps we just did not pay attention to it, but the phrase for a child who does not want to study diligently, "If you don't study, you will become a janitor," will simply lose its meaning completely soon. Robotics is developing globally in the world and already at this stage the professions of dispatcher, manager, designer, teacher and "our" janitor will soon simply lose their significance and vacancy for people. Everything is simple and clear – robots will replace us. But, in fact, we are destroying ourselves; as they say, "if you come with a sword, you will die by the sword", this expression will acquire a deeper meaning in 2100.
[4] You can pay attention to the scheme "Types of social relations" presented below. Service, functional and specialized relationships can lose their popularity in society and turn into a competition between a smart machine and a robot.
Considering technical relations, it cannot be argued that they can disappear or transform into a new branch. But it is quite logical to express your point of view that any robot will always need its creator. What does it mean? The person who created a smart machine will always know about its internal state and its functions. And more than one robot will not be able to correct an error in its program, because the operating condition itself will not be entered into the database for an emergency situation in case of failures. Therefore, the world will always need people who can talk to a robot, so to speak, in the same programming language.
Information relations will be on the verge between disappearance and transformation. Every person needs to receive new information every day, otherwise his further development along the hierarchical stage of evolution will not follow. Thus, we have come to the concept of hierarchical relations, in which social roles can also be included. In our society, social roles are expressed quite clearly and clearly, and there is a conditional line between them – the separation of one group of people from another. But things may change dramatically in the future. First of all, this will be due to an internal change in the new distribution of social roles, which I have already mentioned above. For example, the profession of a teacher is easily replaced by a robot, but do not forget that any teacher is also a professional psychologist and, discussing with children their worries, experiences and emotions received at school, he helps the child to settle in society. This is a good enough example of a nascent new social status. The child does not yet understand who he will become in the future, but during his life he can get acquainted with various directions, choosing the right path for himself. But considering the question of simple teaching, without going into the details of children's relationships in the classroom, you can imagine a robot in the teacher's place (but everyone, nevertheless, should remember that real communication, not virtual, a robot cannot replace).
Our hierarchical pyramid is already changing, so what can we say about the future of the year 2100, if now we cannot say exactly what place we will occupy tomorrow.
Distribution of goods, social mobility, social conditions and ensuring the safety of life
Distribution of goods is an economic concept about the division of material goods between subjects of economic relations, in the course of their activities, taking into account the division of labor. [2,5] For economic sociology, the production process is primarily a process of social reproduction, that is, in the process of creating a material product, social relations of people are produced.
The whole complexity of the problem lies in the fact that the distribution itself is determined ambiguously at different levels of the economic system. I will consider the main directions:
a) distribution of income between people;
b) distribution of income between various factors and conditions;
c) distribution of factors of production between people;
d) taking into account the variety of forms of income (wages ― to the owner of the labor factor; interest ― to the owner of capital, rent ― to the owner of land), their distribution acquires a complex harmony in society.
Throughout the history of the economy, humanity has constantly faced the problem of, perhaps, primary social justice in terms of the economic sphere — this problem affects the issue of inequality and income distribution.
In my opinion, if technology continues to develop at such a speed, then many people who are not directly related to this area may simply be class lower and thus economic inequality will arise.
But then what to do and how to overcome this threshold in order to become more socially mobile in the society of 2100? In the parameters of the current development, it is quite difficult to imagine, but it is realistic to predict this condition for the future. I believe that in the future this issue will reach its peak and the problem of solving it in the shortest possible time will be raised. Our society will understand that the whole essence and power will be in the hands of the one who will be most adapted to the new realities. So, for example, the professions of an IT specialist and a programmer will compete with each other and it is the second direction that will make a rational decision. But, in fact, a new profession will appear – cybertronics, combining skills from both developing areas. This person will be the most socially mobile, because he will have functionality for several specialties at once, and since not everyone will be able to work in this field (you can compare this progress with the formation of the Chinese language as a leader of modernity and development, which surpasses the number of English speakers), this person, if he wishes, will be able to switch on the social ladder or higher, if he wants to continue to develop in his direction, and go a little lower, taking up the specialty of a programmer.
Consequently, the distribution of benefits and social mobility in the future economic sphere will continue to actively interact, but will be addressed to the new technically and informationally developed profession of cybernetics.
Social conditions are the conditions of an individual's life activity in society in the process of work, which include his protection, the qualifications of employees, the level of education, health care, and culture of the population. To date, the most well-known social conditions, in relation to the current trend, are: the level and lifestyle, unemployment rate, real incomes of the population. All this will acquire a very conditional character by 2100 and will be called (in my opinion) – the fitness of society. Due to the development of cyberspace, many people will find themselves trapped in the new time, because they simply will not be socially adapted to the conditions of the dictate of the time of 2100. On the other hand, the governments of all countries, and separately China, which is well-oriented in this area and continues to develop, unlike other countries, several years ahead of schedule; they are already providing the population with new developments and trainings. These designs help the new generation to look with confidence into the future and develop their skills in the present. If such social conditions become increasingly popular in society and really help people navigate the future IT space, then we can safely look to the future and not be afraid of tightening social conditions.
Ensuring the safety of life is a favorable state of the environment for human life, working and study conditions, nutrition and recreation, meaning at the same time, reducing the possibility of dangerous factors that threaten his health, life, interests. As I have long believed, our future, first of all, lies with a humanistic worldview. Despite the rapid development of the world and new constructions, we should not forget that we need to think through all our moves of a new business for society properly, so that later the next generation will not have difficulties with solving a new problem. So the people of the future of 2100 (my point of view) will face the problem of protecting a person from the harmful effects of cyberspace on him. As I said earlier, a person inventing and programming new technologies, in fact, destroys himself. In many ways, we simply focus on how to do everything better than others or faster, I'm not even talking about our natural balance, which is becoming increasingly difficult to control (this is a certain "programmed" system of sustainable evolution of human progress in society). But we forget about the installation of safe and emergency actions on the device of the future. The best way to protect yourself from the effects of technology in 2100 is to think about creating and preserving natural wealth right now, when it is being used so rapidly in almost all spheres of life.
Social institutions and infrastructure, patterns of development
The most commonly used meaning in our 21st century society of the term "Social Institution" is based on the ordering, standardization of relations in society and its interconnected internal elements. Any new social institutions that appear in our society are associated with the spread of new social trends, the emergence of new ideologies of individuals and the inevitable divergence of interests of individuals and groups.
The task of adaptation and survival in the year 2100 for man in the conditions of his evolutionary transformation, the complexity of the structure will give rise to the need for the formation of an increasing number of new social coordinating systems – a special kind of regulatory institution. New concepts will be introduced that will be well established in the society of the 22nd century – the Institute of Virtual Reality, the Institute of Cybernetics, the Institute of Man. And, in my opinion, the Institution of man will be the most necessary for people in terms of fitness and survival in the new information space. A new trend of virtual communication of people is already gaining momentum. And in the year 2100, virtual communication will gain popularity not with a person, but with a smart robot-a person who will be able to video communicate with a participant even via remote platforms, maintain a conversation and express emotions. At the same time, we will not even be able to distinguish a human robot from a real biological being homo sapiens.
We all know that among the main structural elements of a social institution, one of the main ones is singled out – the purpose and scope of activity, therefore it is so necessary to realize and develop new information and technical trends. [6] Also a particularly important element is the normative, social roles and statuses that are so pronounced and can be traced in the very structure of the social institution. Therefore, the future generation will be presented with the most important opportunity to choose the most favorable conditions for themselves or to go the thorny path and choose not the formation of a person in society and the development of social statuses and roles, but the beginning of the formation of a cyberindustrial society in which the robot will be the most developed "mind".
Infrastructure is everything that surrounds an individual and at the same time created by him for his most favorable living in society. These are technical devices, architectural buildings, libraries, museums, schools.